{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94627058-cd5f-452a-84d9-b4fe19541390", "symbol": "SBFG3", "name": "Grupo SBF S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.424, "architecture_energy": 78.242, "architecture_maturity": 38.489, "architecture_confidence": 85.931, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.42, "rotation_up": 11.68, "upward_expansion": 17.45, "deceleration": 37.62, "rotation_down": 78.3, "downward_expansion": 95.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.426667, 9.766182, 10.289612, 10.64284 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 9.17, "trend_reference": 11.198096, "distance_from_trend": -0.181111, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.031564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.168749, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.853125, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.268351, "excess_performance": -0.211302, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.181111, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075325, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.168749, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185852, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238531, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049743, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.268351, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.549046, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9493000, "relative_activity": 1.289055, "balance": 0.549046, "dry_up": 1.134343, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084389, "annualized_volatility": 0.366295, "from_high_reference": -0.400048, "from_low_reference": 0.040863 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.198096, "fair_value_reference": 11.031564, "structural_low": 8.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.016621, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.022208, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.491071, "worst_return": -0.289333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.027136, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.029781, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.717363, "worst_return": -0.404563, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.146439, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.00844, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.746228, "worst_return": -0.460141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"down", "direction": -61.770967, "energy": 50.207748, "activity_lines": [ 10.346, 10.506545, 10.864979, 11.167878 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.71, "volume": 7854900, "typical_volume": 8239590.0, "trend": 11.506662, "fair_value": 11.05643, "relative_strength": -21.713412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.766783, "energy": 56.704584, "activity_lines": [ 10.126667, 10.334545, 10.734862, 11.046508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.36, "volume": 8708800, "typical_volume": 8164175.0, "trend": 11.408208, "fair_value": 11.042046, "relative_strength": -23.991612, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.675566, "energy": 73.543416, "activity_lines": [ 9.846, 10.127455, 10.582764, 10.908014 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.45, "volume": 7357900, "typical_volume": 7416075.0, "trend": 11.321989, "fair_value": 11.027264, "relative_strength": -24.433419, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.317005, "energy": 73.801812, "activity_lines": [ 9.641333, 9.959091, 10.446297, 10.781678 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.17, "volume": 9493000, "typical_volume": 7364310.0, "trend": 11.198096, "fair_value": 11.031564, "relative_strength": -23.853125, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.423916, "energy": 78.241898, "activity_lines": [ 9.426667, 9.766182, 10.289612, 10.64284 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }