{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94677ee9-bee0-4e11-a677-3928909e0f25", "symbol": "CSMG3", "name": "Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.566, "architecture_energy": 47.45, "architecture_maturity": 40.951, "architecture_confidence": 79.5, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.44, "rotation_up": 56.21, "upward_expansion": 80.25, "deceleration": 67.53, "rotation_down": 20.77, "downward_expansion": 6.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.124, 62.417778, 59.569865, 58.144391 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 61.939999, "trend_reference": 56.075927, "distance_from_trend": 0.104574, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.547692, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.169703, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 27.878332, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.160141, "excess_performance": 0.21719, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.104574, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137834, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.169703, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005154, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.278783, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059336, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.160141, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.778515, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14042500, "relative_activity": 0.84101, "balance": 1.778515, "dry_up": 0.947514, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063383, "annualized_volatility": 0.308606, "from_high_reference": -0.0867, "from_low_reference": 1.573901 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.075927, "fair_value_reference": 28.547692, "structural_low": 49.04474, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.023354, "positive_rate": 0.628571, "directional_follow_through": 0.628571, "median_excess_return": 0.006861, "regime_survival": 0.742857, "best_return": 0.23337, "worst_return": -0.170929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.06251, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.084932, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.32956, "worst_return": -0.227017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.091633, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.152252, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.639401, "worst_return": 0.023923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 64.17, "volume": 17664500, "typical_volume": 17015965.0, "trend": 55.475644, "fair_value": 28.235645, "relative_strength": 30.014704, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.431868, "energy": 71.955044, "activity_lines": [ 63.761333, 62.094536, 59.154788, 57.727336 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.939999, "volume": 14042500, "typical_volume": 16697195.0, "trend": 56.075927, "fair_value": 28.547692, "relative_strength": 27.878332, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.566112, "energy": 47.449843, "activity_lines": [ 63.124, 62.417778, 59.569865, 58.144391 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }