{ "ticker": { "uuid": "946abad6-f941-49d8-8024-876d9587bd8a", "symbol": "FPG", "name": "Union Technologies Informatique Group S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 81.277, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.445, "architecture_energy": 13.263, "architecture_maturity": 8.371, "architecture_confidence": 77.759, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.33, "rotation_up": 19.48, "upward_expansion": 45.59, "deceleration": 87.23, "rotation_down": 37.02, "downward_expansion": 27.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1213, 0.123336, 0.123169, 0.122186 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.12, "trend_reference": 0.120983, "distance_from_trend": -0.008128, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.273265, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.560866, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.938354, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.02439, "excess_performance": -0.077702, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008128, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004845, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.560866, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061326, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059384, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044785, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02439, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.148191, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100, "relative_activity": 0.003877, "balance": 1.148191, "dry_up": 0.797617, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085256, "annualized_volatility": 0.373781, "from_high_reference": -0.220779, "from_low_reference": 0.421801 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.120983, "fair_value_reference": 0.273265, "structural_low": 0.097, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.010142, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": -0.030065, "regime_survival": 0.62963, "best_return": 0.211712, "worst_return": -0.641818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.000169, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.051927, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.263557, "worst_return": -0.636364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.058411, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.065499, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.08, "worst_return": -0.632727, "sufficient": true }, { 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068627, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.235294, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.335, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.263813, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.221154, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.125523, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066929, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.085837, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051383, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.56, "volume": 7090, "typical_volume": 12219.6, "trend": 0.499067, "fair_value": 0.525423, "relative_strength": 8.512688, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.840671, "energy": 79.132605, 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"relative_strength": 3.685023, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.846314, "energy": 31.869856, "activity_lines": [ 0.126667, 0.125573, 0.123212, 0.122135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.1265, "volume": 4589, "typical_volume": 24875.2, "trend": 0.121633, "fair_value": 0.28115, "relative_strength": 3.946029, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.325435, "energy": 27.030391, "activity_lines": [ 0.126567, 0.126073, 0.123714, 0.122448 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.12, "volume": 58485, "typical_volume": 25232.7, "trend": 0.1214, "fair_value": 0.278682, "relative_strength": -1.520835, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.368434, "energy": 12.840151, "activity_lines": [ 0.124333, 0.125191, 0.123545, 0.122343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.12, "volume": 19123, "typical_volume": 26095.45, "trend": 0.121033, "fair_value": 0.275957, "relative_strength": -3.472369, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.373179, "energy": 11.291574, "activity_lines": [ 0.1226, 0.124182, 0.123364, 0.122253 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.12, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 25794.65, "trend": 0.120983, "fair_value": 0.273265, "relative_strength": -5.938354, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.444833, "energy": 13.263326, "activity_lines": [ 0.1213, 0.123336, 0.123169, 0.122186 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }