{ "ticker": { "uuid": "946bb6d7-8dd7-4e8b-afb9-36c362b2b3f6", "symbol": "QXL", "name": "Quantum X Labs Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.7, "architecture_energy": 20.927, "architecture_maturity": 77.605, "architecture_confidence": 91.717, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.45, "rotation_up": 23.64, "upward_expansion": 55.67, "deceleration": 91.07, "rotation_down": 28.59, "downward_expansion": 19.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.67, 4.964182, 4.618381, 4.029176 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.6, "trend_reference": 3.291723, "distance_from_trend": 0.397444, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.285003, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.400303, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 40.495287, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.546078, "excess_performance": 1.358625, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.397444, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.533381, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.400303, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.3478, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.404953, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.504936, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.546078, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.813784, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 223433, "relative_activity": 0.505281, "balance": 0.813784, "dry_up": 1.010474, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.255433, "annualized_volatility": 0.787853, "from_high_reference": -0.402597, "from_low_reference": 3.789172 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.291723, "fair_value_reference": 3.285003, "structural_low": 1.39, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.039773, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.009267, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.941176, "worst_return": -0.655567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.064942, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.633523, "worst_return": -0.945119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.295616, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.332672, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.490196, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.112231, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.272661, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.547619, "worst_return": -0.45, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.182182, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072727, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.317757, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062992, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.350575, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.435644, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.378238, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031579, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.344498, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.193333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.195122, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043084, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.0, "volume": 1533, "typical_volume": 1329.2, "trend": 3.275993, "fair_value": 1.132126, "relative_strength": 12.058273, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.059502, "energy": 54.173101, 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.752677, "energy": 59.6642, "activity_lines": [ 5.502333, 5.172909, 4.235238, 3.60433 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.81, "volume": 490649, "typical_volume": 466747.8, "trend": 2.97939, "fair_value": 3.267118, "relative_strength": 48.841645, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.540963, "energy": 47.935399, "activity_lines": [ 5.276667, 5.178636, 4.364976, 3.730499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.9, "volume": 255696, "typical_volume": 408617.6, "trend": 3.10439, "fair_value": 3.2734, "relative_strength": 55.510575, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.360196, "energy": 35.269135, "activity_lines": [ 5.069333, 5.172909, 4.488571, 3.854409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.41, "volume": 817530, "typical_volume": 444547.4, "trend": 3.196723, "fair_value": 3.278592, "relative_strength": 40.687955, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.424495, "energy": 23.728039, "activity_lines": [ 4.795333, 5.054091, 4.550738, 3.938642 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.6, "volume": 223433, "typical_volume": 442195.3, "trend": 3.291723, "fair_value": 3.285003, "relative_strength": 40.495287, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.699944, "energy": 20.926826, "activity_lines": [ 4.67, 4.964182, 4.618381, 4.029176 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }