{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94729154-1a84-4200-a9ce-8149ffcde985", "symbol": "ARL", "name": "American Realty Investors Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 48.616, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -2.226, "architecture_energy": 19.59, "architecture_maturity": 35.125, "architecture_confidence": 59.763, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.77, "rotation_up": 17.66, "upward_expansion": 25.2, "deceleration": 73.31, "rotation_down": 60.54, "downward_expansion": 35.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.639333, 16.881273, 16.218429, 16.001269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.36, "trend_reference": 15.984333, "distance_from_trend": -0.039059, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.708013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.022155, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.859054, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.122286, "excess_performance": -0.247911, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039059, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021886, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.022155, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113761, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138591, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055514, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.122286, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.271037, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55564, "relative_activity": 1.068026, "balance": 1.271037, "dry_up": 1.41966, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.174194, "annualized_volatility": 0.65465, "from_high_reference": -0.371522, "from_low_reference": 0.236715 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.984333, "fair_value_reference": 15.708013, "structural_low": 12.42, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.069124, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.092441, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.276278, "worst_return": -0.211915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.016436, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.128235, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.301089, "worst_return": -0.357435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.184377, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.336648, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.319026, "worst_return": -0.365743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.058296, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.284038, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.081923, "worst_return": -0.151637, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.266553, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.103896, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096681, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.185128, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028373, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050794, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.038047, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030941, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002837, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033488, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041562, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 21.99, "volume": 24452, "typical_volume": 33973.3, "trend": 21.936333, "fair_value": 15.055303, "relative_strength": -1.725843, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance 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15.791346, "relative_strength": -7.462779, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.265641, "energy": 69.794197, "activity_lines": [ 19.012, 17.786, 16.375571, 16.177957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.79, "volume": 105070, "typical_volume": 47210.55, "trend": 16.034333, "fair_value": 15.765192, "relative_strength": -13.271869, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.765779, "energy": 29.055318, "activity_lines": [ 17.583333, 17.449455, 16.28419, 16.095118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.22, "volume": 84647, "typical_volume": 50597.25, "trend": 16.000333, "fair_value": 15.740256, "relative_strength": -11.697562, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.116303, "energy": 16.575579, "activity_lines": [ 16.378667, 17.163273, 16.244762, 16.042581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.36, "volume": 55564, "typical_volume": 52024.95, "trend": 15.984333, "fair_value": 15.708013, "relative_strength": -13.859054, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.226273, "energy": 19.590327, "activity_lines": [ 15.639333, 16.881273, 16.218429, 16.001269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }