{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9473abdb-1dce-4b9c-a217-c4f616374bff", "symbol": "AOC", "name": "Aluminum Corporation of China Limited", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.955, "architecture_energy": 30.403, "architecture_maturity": 91.022, "architecture_confidence": 75.009, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.81, "rotation_up": 29.07, "upward_expansion": 24.46, "deceleration": 46.89, "rotation_down": 21.12, "downward_expansion": 58.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.923733, 0.884219, 0.926994, 1.020505 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.948, "trend_reference": 1.149468, "distance_from_trend": -0.175271, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.564211, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.680221, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.507288, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.310044, "excess_performance": -0.48429, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.175271, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101216, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.680221, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.299059, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.295073, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.187187, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.310044, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082874, "annualized_volatility": 0.685971, "from_high_reference": -0.419296, "from_low_reference": 0.602486 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.149468, "fair_value_reference": 0.564211, "structural_low": 0.685264, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.08543, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.064981, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.500594, "worst_return": -0.284647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.134288, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.2373, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.954207, "worst_return": -0.053259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.109474, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.110016, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 2.4294, "worst_return": -0.15915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.549783, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.406773, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.422837, "worst_return": -0.0671, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.046556, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063582, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095347, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112162, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053831, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03803, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037422, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.223942, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041053, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.595039, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040161, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024151, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.178982, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 0.191504, "fair_value": 0.161624, "relative_strength": 3.424804, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.680768, "energy": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.852, "volume": 250, "typical_volume": 12.5, "trend": 1.204118, "fair_value": 0.545596, "relative_strength": -34.494688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.324728, "energy": 81.6306, "activity_lines": [ 0.813894, 0.855501, 0.982869, 1.089609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.858, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12.5, "trend": 1.192135, "fair_value": 0.549932, "relative_strength": -32.9311, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.63244, "energy": 62.947459, "activity_lines": [ 0.82761, 0.849513, 0.958635, 1.067279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.932, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12.5, "trend": 1.182651, "fair_value": 0.554647, "relative_strength": -28.302326, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.09422, "energy": 45.150747, "activity_lines": [ 0.870063, 0.859556, 0.944635, 1.050496 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.938, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12.5, "trend": 1.168218, "fair_value": 0.559388, "relative_strength": -28.021554, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.897277, "energy": 39.589092, "activity_lines": [ 0.903333, 0.870747, 0.933954, 1.034712 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.948, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12.5, "trend": 1.149468, "fair_value": 0.564211, "relative_strength": -29.507288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.955107, "energy": 30.403222, "activity_lines": [ 0.923733, 0.884219, 0.926994, 1.020505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }