{ "ticker": { "uuid": "947f01de-12f7-42e9-b348-ef130d29f026", "symbol": "82832", "name": "Bosera ETFs - Bosera FTSE China A50 Index ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.985, "architecture_energy": 28.842, "architecture_maturity": 63.617, "architecture_confidence": 89.264, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.51, "rotation_up": 24.13, "upward_expansion": 57.91, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 40.17, "downward_expansion": 21.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.914667, 11.352727, 11.078548, 10.59072 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.91, "trend_reference": 10.0765, "distance_from_trend": 0.082717, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.99121, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.560531, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.143814, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.206858, "excess_performance": 0.24044, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082717, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103548, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.560531, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011206, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.151438, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076045, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.206858, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.492209, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.492209, "dry_up": 2.053548, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089826, "annualized_volatility": 0.443679, "from_high_reference": -0.198972, "from_low_reference": 0.639369 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.0765, "fair_value_reference": 6.99121, "structural_low": 7.95, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.013471, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005746, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.15057, "worst_return": -0.103255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.029549, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.005941, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.176207, "worst_return": -0.129738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.012068, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.01174, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.383097, "worst_return": -0.142561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.200147, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.041812, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.304103, "worst_return": -0.290824, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005327, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061107, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029321, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022364, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011895, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.187547, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010532, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.151758, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019812, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.322982, "energy": 86.354093, "activity_lines": [ 12.008667, 11.513818, 10.587024, 10.152871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.0, "volume": 29200, "typical_volume": 13735.0, "trend": 9.799833, "fair_value": 6.877653, "relative_strength": 50.792701, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.018358, "energy": 92.987465, "activity_lines": [ 12.472, 11.854182, 10.87819, 10.368903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.74, "volume": 85800, "typical_volume": 18025.0, "trend": 9.88, "fair_value": 6.905601, "relative_strength": 21.434055, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.981035, "energy": 61.46729, "activity_lines": [ 12.014, 11.726727, 10.936714, 10.429559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.15, "volume": 58800, "typical_volume": 18235.0, "trend": 9.968, "fair_value": 6.936306, "relative_strength": 22.836721, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.814094, "energy": 45.801677, "activity_lines": [ 11.677333, 11.667273, 11.027905, 10.511495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.31, "volume": 8800, "typical_volume": 18675.0, "trend": 10.024, "fair_value": 6.961242, "relative_strength": 8.796893, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.808452, "energy": 21.03409, "activity_lines": [ 11.116667, 11.447273, 11.028429, 10.533559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.91, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18675.0, "trend": 10.0765, "fair_value": 6.99121, "relative_strength": 15.143814, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.985127, "energy": 28.842233, "activity_lines": [ 10.914667, 11.352727, 11.078548, 10.59072 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }