{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9480b8bb-7f4e-4403-babe-02c0d0f00221", "symbol": "TAN", "name": "Tanfield Group PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.872, "architecture_energy": 74.258, "architecture_maturity": 44.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.776, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.21, "rotation_up": 13.24, "upward_expansion": 15.23, "deceleration": 38.11, "rotation_down": 73.75, "downward_expansion": 90.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.042567, 0.045616, 0.048477, 0.052312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.036, "trend_reference": 0.057083, "distance_from_trend": -0.369343, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.044088, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.18346, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.093669, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.480144, "excess_performance": -0.53138, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.369343, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074799, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.18346, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.363534, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.410937, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.265986, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.480144, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.582446, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 448383, "relative_activity": 1.336711, "balance": 0.582446, "dry_up": 1.075153, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.212094, "annualized_volatility": 0.676099, "from_high_reference": -0.533981, "from_low_reference": 0.016375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.057083, "fair_value_reference": 0.044088, "structural_low": 0.03542, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.000939, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.01078, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.351124, "worst_return": -0.247059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008889, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.013571, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.59322, "worst_return": -0.14, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0025, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.053251, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.932203, "worst_return": -0.157143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022869, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042553, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042553, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009804, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.17757, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", 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0.057137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.0497, "volume": 56601, "typical_volume": 330855.85, "trend": 0.059825, "fair_value": 0.043822, "relative_strength": -17.04179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.032393, "energy": 28.314712, "activity_lines": [ 0.050553, 0.050525, 0.053248, 0.056443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0444, "volume": 768868, "typical_volume": 363457.95, "trend": 0.059222, "fair_value": 0.043898, "relative_strength": -26.296158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.235966, "energy": 46.110703, "activity_lines": [ 0.048267, 0.049375, 0.05202, 0.055448 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0444, "volume": 139187, "typical_volume": 320899.95, "trend": 0.058493, "fair_value": 0.043975, "relative_strength": -26.9225, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.169333, "energy": 59.295749, "activity_lines": [ 0.04651, 0.048335, 0.050902, 0.054491 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0467, "volume": 86148, "typical_volume": 321945.0, "trend": 0.057983, "fair_value": 0.044066, "relative_strength": -23.840559, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.010626, "energy": 55.574086, "activity_lines": [ 0.046113, 0.047889, 0.050138, 0.05373 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.036, "volume": 448383, "typical_volume": 335437.5, "trend": 0.057083, "fair_value": 0.044088, "relative_strength": -41.093669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.871774, "energy": 74.257843, "activity_lines": [ 0.042567, 0.045616, 0.048477, 0.052312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }