{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9482adba-f2bf-43be-9a75-891cf3af202e", "symbol": "CAVA", "name": "CAVA Group, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -43.94, "architecture_energy": 66.717, "architecture_maturity": 21.133, "architecture_confidence": 74.678, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.08, "rotation_up": 16.71, "upward_expansion": 22.86, "deceleration": 43.06, "rotation_down": 75.82, "downward_expansion": 66.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.595333, 70.227273, 75.542571, 77.09772 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 62.42, "trend_reference": 76.981667, "distance_from_trend": -0.189158, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 78.188397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.201672, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.093025, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.107776, "excess_performance": -0.233401, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189158, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092264, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.201672, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.239504, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20093, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17739, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.107776, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.422743, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15765234, "relative_activity": 1.05748, "balance": 0.422743, "dry_up": 1.147241, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154868, "annualized_volatility": 0.625361, "from_high_reference": -0.368155, "from_low_reference": 0.437918 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 76.981667, "fair_value_reference": 78.188397, "structural_low": 60.8932, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.108602, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.08832, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.108602, "worst_return": 0.108602, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.272604, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.156156, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.272604, "worst_return": -0.272604, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.26127, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.317752, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.26127, "worst_return": -0.26127, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.390256, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.561243, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.390256, "worst_return": -0.390256, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033011, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142265, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.392197, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.136035, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.170819, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.051948, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.185012, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052927, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051653, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006612, "active": true } ], 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.411251, "energy": 62.012901, "activity_lines": [ 66.798667, 72.677818, 77.223381, 78.055333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.42, "volume": 15765234, "typical_volume": 14908310.1, "trend": 76.981667, "fair_value": 78.188397, "relative_strength": -20.093025, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.940265, "energy": 66.717324, "activity_lines": [ 64.595333, 70.227273, 75.542571, 77.09772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }