{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9485ccf4-d2ff-4877-82f3-1234d6fd5055", "symbol": "603657", "name": "Jinhua Chunguang Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.017, "architecture_energy": 20.637, "architecture_maturity": 31.907, "architecture_confidence": 69.548, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.03, "rotation_up": 21.11, "upward_expansion": 10.87, "deceleration": 59.78, "rotation_down": 44.26, "downward_expansion": 69.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.667333, 23.584545, 24.982238, 25.740559 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.5, "trend_reference": 26.842333, "distance_from_trend": 0.061756, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.544317, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.387245, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.586124, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.007423, "excess_performance": 0.050627, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061756, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095233, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.387245, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279494, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055861, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018874, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007423, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.912326, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23952319, "relative_activity": 1.472751, "balance": 0.912326, "dry_up": 1.22234, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.162456, "annualized_volatility": 0.691125, "from_high_reference": -0.411279, "from_low_reference": 0.565934 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.842333, "fair_value_reference": 20.544317, "structural_low": 18.200001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.062382, "positive_rate": 0.652174, "directional_follow_through": 0.347826, "median_excess_return": 0.03884, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.255708, "worst_return": -0.267416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.127477, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.062707, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.561056, "worst_return": -0.151877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.086232, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.049517, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.486968, "worst_return": -0.364832, "sufficient": 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.629999, "volume": 14208540, "typical_volume": 14669735.0, "trend": 27.196333, "fair_value": 20.441624, "relative_strength": -33.46678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.633057, "energy": 44.717847, "activity_lines": [ 22.171333, 23.194363, 25.143952, 26.000688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.549999, "volume": 22200366, "typical_volume": 15379580.3, "trend": 26.885667, "fair_value": 20.470822, "relative_strength": -26.771984, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.553168, "energy": 49.450066, "activity_lines": [ 21.705999, 22.673091, 24.716286, 25.636409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.5, "volume": 23952319, "typical_volume": 16263656.3, "trend": 26.842333, "fair_value": 20.544317, "relative_strength": -5.586124, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.017333, "energy": 20.636818, "activity_lines": [ 23.667333, 23.584545, 24.982238, 25.740559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }