{ "ticker": { "uuid": "948a6855-2c26-4fdb-871b-ac17b4983f63", "symbol": "HUBG", "name": "Hub Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.156, "architecture_energy": 57.987, "architecture_maturity": 15.586, "architecture_confidence": 84.07, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.31, "rotation_up": 64.05, "upward_expansion": 84.6, "deceleration": 48.91, "rotation_down": 14.15, "downward_expansion": 11.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.106667, 47.185273, 45.140225, 43.653532 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 47.8, "trend_reference": 42.685293, "distance_from_trend": 0.119824, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.291155, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.186365, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.345712, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.146661, "excess_performance": -0.040793, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.119824, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048059, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.186365, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112164, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.033457, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091304, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.146661, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.4487, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3321149, "relative_activity": 0.930205, "balance": 1.4487, "dry_up": 1.081156, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086009, "annualized_volatility": 0.461831, "from_high_reference": -0.096622, "from_low_reference": 0.463742 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.685293, "fair_value_reference": 40.291155, "structural_low": 32.804483, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.008703, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.014763, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.165583, "worst_return": -0.153536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.038028, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.014357, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.134641, "worst_return": -0.195283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.089134, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.185173, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.212604, "worst_return": -0.342963, "sufficient": true }, 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43.507925, 41.989251, 41.742934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 46.2, "volume": 3036058, "typical_volume": 3708877.75, "trend": 42.052138, "fair_value": 40.122785, "relative_strength": 0.65778, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.440753, "energy": 41.081301, "activity_lines": [ 45.139333, 44.123184, 42.496456, 42.018514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.22, "volume": 4957929, "typical_volume": 3752847.2, "trend": 42.308665, "fair_value": 40.188338, "relative_strength": 15.949541, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.69343, "energy": 70.823142, "activity_lines": [ 47.171333, 45.593982, 43.46646, 42.609989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.28, "volume": 2612124, "typical_volume": 3635198.0, "trend": 42.495558, "fair_value": 40.22499, "relative_strength": 13.063804, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.239413, "energy": 73.200287, "activity_lines": [ 48.234, 46.558153, 44.211555, 43.059753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.53, "volume": 4549183, "typical_volume": 3675791.4, "trend": 42.630854, "fair_value": 40.248364, "relative_strength": 5.930079, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.954409, "energy": 64.279599, "activity_lines": [ 48.051333, 46.803444, 44.64477, 43.320039 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.8, "volume": 3321149, "typical_volume": 3570341.4, "trend": 42.685293, "fair_value": 40.291155, "relative_strength": 3.345712, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.155633, "energy": 57.987474, "activity_lines": [ 48.106667, 47.185273, 45.140225, 43.653532 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }