{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9493f619-017d-4369-8c78-eeed54bd3889", "symbol": "RPD", "name": "RBC Quant European Dividend Leaders ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.784, "architecture_energy": 62.627, "architecture_maturity": 46.552, "architecture_confidence": 74.957, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.31, "rotation_up": 58.51, "upward_expansion": 80.63, "deceleration": 61.76, "rotation_down": 23.49, "downward_expansion": 9.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.625587, 39.36753, 38.793299, 38.191274 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.419998, "trend_reference": 37.437929, "distance_from_trend": 0.079654, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.97705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.444756, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.535724, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.108927, "excess_performance": -0.011494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079654, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055984, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.444756, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028179, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025357, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006626, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108927, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.355897, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7600, "relative_activity": 0.801265, "balance": 0.355897, "dry_up": 2.082235, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020103, "annualized_volatility": 0.167034, "from_high_reference": -0.005903, "from_low_reference": 0.364209 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.437929, "fair_value_reference": 27.97705, "structural_low": 33.352488, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.017978, "positive_rate": 0.690476, "directional_follow_through": 0.690476, "median_excess_return": -0.001597, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.101895, "worst_return": -0.08351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.041277, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.001431, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.125074, "worst_return": -0.113111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.088027, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.027881, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.195736, "worst_return": -0.202277, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 39.162173, 38.814007, 38.096201, 37.554685 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.655029, "volume": 57500, "typical_volume": 10365.0, "trend": 36.886632, "fair_value": 27.609526, "relative_strength": 1.342834, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.966252, "energy": 52.549753, "activity_lines": [ 39.02157, 38.848924, 38.212284, 37.679809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.970001, "volume": 9200, "typical_volume": 10340.0, "trend": 37.065205, "fair_value": 27.725805, "relative_strength": 1.846524, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.143282, "energy": 50.423417, "activity_lines": [ 38.997314, 38.918771, 38.354656, 37.81422 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.744999, "volume": 4700, "typical_volume": 9600.0, "trend": 37.255454, "fair_value": 27.850486, "relative_strength": 4.195359, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.92967, "energy": 53.076018, "activity_lines": [ 39.236612, 39.094227, 38.553063, 37.98711 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.419998, "volume": 7600, "typical_volume": 9485.0, "trend": 37.437929, "fair_value": 27.97705, "relative_strength": 2.535724, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.784252, "energy": 62.627399, "activity_lines": [ 39.625587, 39.36753, 38.793299, 38.191274 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }