{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9494b916-4252-42ec-a148-b5a346947efa", "symbol": "300189", "name": "Hainan Shennong Seed Industry Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.062, "architecture_energy": 54.882, "architecture_maturity": 88.903, "architecture_confidence": 69.592, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.08, "rotation_up": 27.46, "upward_expansion": 21.71, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 50.01, "downward_expansion": 74.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.466667, 4.451636, 4.876524, 5.437785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.91, "trend_reference": 6.138, "distance_from_trend": -0.200065, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.136218, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.187075, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.082575, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.433025, "excess_performance": -0.440425, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.200065, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081138, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.187075, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.358932, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.180826, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075981, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.433025, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.799565, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 705993342, "relative_activity": 2.414216, "balance": 0.799565, "dry_up": 1.575292, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09776, "annualized_volatility": 0.480696, "from_high_reference": -0.505539, "from_low_reference": 0.28534 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.138, "fair_value_reference": 4.136218, "structural_low": 3.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.011721, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.155294, "worst_return": -0.217949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.075862, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.028268, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.652174, "worst_return": -0.242798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.082759, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.004135, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.251029, "worst_return": -0.276786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -80.2672, "energy": 92.134731, "activity_lines": [ 4.441333, 4.731818, 5.416238, 5.949634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.09, "volume": 409555059, "typical_volume": 401324902.95, "trend": 6.404667, "fair_value": 4.12141, "relative_strength": -29.818919, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.495113, "energy": 91.108968, "activity_lines": [ 4.287333, 4.559818, 5.223857, 5.794581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.1, "volume": 387378237, "typical_volume": 337555308.8, "trend": 6.343333, "fair_value": 4.124295, "relative_strength": -29.587543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.51041, "energy": 84.011959, "activity_lines": [ 4.191333, 4.428364, 5.051333, 5.645892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.43, "volume": 339735314, "typical_volume": 304303976.85, "trend": 6.222333, "fair_value": 4.129167, "relative_strength": -22.413703, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.522408, "energy": 66.453433, "activity_lines": [ 4.251333, 4.387455, 4.931952, 5.522452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.91, "volume": 705993342, "typical_volume": 292431729.1, "trend": 6.138, "fair_value": 4.136218, "relative_strength": -18.082575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.061731, "energy": 54.882303, "activity_lines": [ 4.466667, 4.451636, 4.876524, 5.437785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }