{ "ticker": { "uuid": "949e57b8-5812-4019-b1f8-9bd039484298", "symbol": "BIKE", "name": "Bike24 Holding AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.687, "architecture_energy": 49.523, "architecture_maturity": 37.076, "architecture_confidence": 91.384, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.26, "rotation_up": 17.96, "upward_expansion": 7.49, "deceleration": 46.23, "rotation_down": 61.9, "downward_expansion": 83.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.594667, 2.633455, 2.728476, 2.794323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.55, "trend_reference": 2.876333, "distance_from_trend": -0.113455, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.077609, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.227372, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.74422, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.152824, "excess_performance": -0.217464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113455, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045253, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.227372, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143869, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.207442, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172971, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.152824, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.616478, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13014, "relative_activity": 0.28251, "balance": 0.616478, "dry_up": 0.294694, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075113, "annualized_volatility": 0.30699, "from_high_reference": -0.299451, "from_low_reference": 0.053719 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.876333, "fair_value_reference": 2.077609, "structural_low": 2.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.025926, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": -0.047763, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.441441, "worst_return": -0.18125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.089922, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.086019, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 1.346535, "worst_return": -0.3728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.108814, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.236203, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.017021, "worst_return": -0.446914, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042623, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109489, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.07234, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.18638, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.628415, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.419889, "energy": 59.692051, "activity_lines": [ 2.617333, 2.692182, 2.775095, 2.83428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.63, "volume": 11920, "typical_volume": 51083.4, "trend": 2.893333, "fair_value": 2.076712, "relative_strength": -16.387887, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.648478, "energy": 49.004117, "activity_lines": [ 2.621333, 2.668909, 2.754714, 2.816473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.55, "volume": 13014, "typical_volume": 46065.6, "trend": 2.876333, "fair_value": 2.077609, "relative_strength": -20.74422, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.687167, "energy": 49.522638, "activity_lines": [ 2.594667, 2.633455, 2.728476, 2.794323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }