{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94a75f23-e456-433b-92f2-b87c854f3e5f", "symbol": "COTY34", "name": "Coty Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 54.555, "architecture_energy": 70.727, "architecture_maturity": 21.194, "architecture_confidence": 63.519, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.95, "rotation_up": 75.6, "upward_expansion": 61.28, "deceleration": 24.96, "rotation_down": 16.05, "downward_expansion": 21.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.749333, 6.268364, 5.919238, 5.915032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.2, "trend_reference": 6.180667, "distance_from_trend": 0.164923, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.296795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.606488, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.956975, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.043478, "excess_performance": 0.100527, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.164923, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139143, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.606488, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093152, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14957, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.349415, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043478, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.594333, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6186, "relative_activity": 2.306058, "balance": 2.594333, "dry_up": 2.21165, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080021, "annualized_volatility": 0.519717, "from_high_reference": -0.475219, "from_low_reference": 0.45749 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.180667, "fair_value_reference": 18.296795, "structural_low": 4.94, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.048067, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.06106, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.07677, "worst_return": -0.05025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.086806, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.086987, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.42898, "worst_return": -0.159401, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.059375, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.009593, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.311249, "worst_return": -0.44426, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-07-21", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059444, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-08-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060038, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034126, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040972, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034965, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047766, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009967, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.784557, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084337, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 29.43, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 29.65, "trend": 28.99, "fair_value": 22.159359, "relative_strength": 11.804915, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"trend": 6.43, "fair_value": 18.890449, "relative_strength": -40.377503, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.842665, "energy": 27.245631, "activity_lines": [ 5.499333, 5.389455, 5.494762, 5.805441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.64, "volume": 7340, "typical_volume": 2072.45, "trend": 6.350333, "fair_value": 18.732436, "relative_strength": -27.455936, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 15.29127, "energy": 24.61202, "activity_lines": [ 5.915333, 5.615091, 5.592905, 5.818989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.28, "volume": 3297, "typical_volume": 2080.7, "trend": 6.272667, "fair_value": 18.584038, "relative_strength": -29.794699, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.547706, "energy": 30.079314, "activity_lines": [ 6.118667, 5.765091, 5.656048, 5.814452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.85, "volume": 6908, "typical_volume": 2390.7, "trend": 6.218333, "fair_value": 18.439295, "relative_strength": -23.23518, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.857512, "energy": 45.447025, "activity_lines": [ 6.434667, 6.000364, 5.773429, 5.851699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.2, "volume": 6186, "typical_volume": 2682.5, "trend": 6.180667, "fair_value": 18.296795, "relative_strength": -14.956975, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 54.554872, "energy": 70.727013, "activity_lines": [ 6.749333, 6.268364, 5.919238, 5.915032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }