{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94aa0c46-186e-4a7e-92f2-8941a88ac4dc", "symbol": "PSET", "name": "PRINCIPAL QUALITY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.187, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 93.249, "architecture_energy": 92.889, "architecture_maturity": 15.277, "architecture_confidence": 62.008, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.18, "rotation_up": 83.94, "upward_expansion": 96.68, "deceleration": 41.9, "rotation_down": 9.35, "downward_expansion": 21.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 78.644253, 77.427239, 76.268976, 75.31898 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 81.4081, "trend_reference": 74.620757, "distance_from_trend": 0.090958, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 68.863691, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.182163, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.355725, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.086535, "excess_performance": -0.100919, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090958, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002229, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.182163, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063543, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053557, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105974, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086535, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.151806, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9992, "relative_activity": 0.849562, "balance": 1.151806, "dry_up": 0.627011, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019865, "annualized_volatility": 0.146824, "from_high_reference": -0.001618, "from_low_reference": 0.206333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 74.620757, "fair_value_reference": 68.863691, "structural_low": 67.483932, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.021052, "positive_rate": 0.657895, "directional_follow_through": 0.657895, "median_excess_return": -0.003547, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.067491, "worst_return": -0.112358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.011461, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.00216, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.146983, "worst_return": -0.096397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.067857, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.045105, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.123187, "worst_return": -0.138597, 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"energy": 70.836714, "activity_lines": [ 76.341423, 75.840482, 74.966918, 74.505117 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 76.2275, "volume": 5074, "typical_volume": 13588.5, "trend": 74.421717, "fair_value": 68.551194, "relative_strength": -6.892201, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.466217, "energy": 69.572829, "activity_lines": [ 76.431686, 75.96777, 75.191569, 74.619503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 78.3559, "volume": 9705, "typical_volume": 12493.9, "trend": 74.500398, "fair_value": 68.696253, "relative_strength": -4.529896, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.791488, "energy": 80.874771, "activity_lines": [ 77.155247, 76.447806, 75.603885, 74.873321 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 81.4081, "volume": 9992, "typical_volume": 11761.35, "trend": 74.620757, "fair_value": 68.863691, "relative_strength": -5.355725, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.248606, "energy": 92.888624, "activity_lines": [ 78.644253, 77.427239, 76.268976, 75.31898 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }