{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94aada0a-00ab-4aa6-9e8d-546655cc656e", "symbol": "600686", "name": "Xiamen King Long Motor Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.209, "architecture_energy": 57.853, "architecture_maturity": 77.036, "architecture_confidence": 92.531, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.08, "rotation_up": 28.24, "upward_expansion": 10.66, "deceleration": 60.4, "rotation_down": 49.34, "downward_expansion": 81.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.404262, 11.471025, 12.555168, 13.670353 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.75, "trend_reference": 15.178563, "distance_from_trend": -0.225882, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.92205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.014431, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.229052, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.290459, "excess_performance": -0.247255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.225882, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087681, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.014431, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.36866, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192291, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16239, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.290459, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.373829, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129205912, "relative_activity": 1.513269, "balance": 0.373829, "dry_up": 1.361549, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098702, "annualized_volatility": 0.501271, "from_high_reference": -0.470721, "from_low_reference": 0.16729 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.178563, "fair_value_reference": 11.92205, "structural_low": 10.06605, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.023411, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.014014, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.646939, "worst_return": -0.109091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.20009, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.184047, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.514834, "worst_return": -0.140105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.322449, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.272754, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 2.121792, "worst_return": -0.180602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.22, "volume": 135682748, "typical_volume": 83174162.8, "trend": 15.37823, "fair_value": 11.895587, "relative_strength": -13.860782, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.189826, "energy": 63.959502, "activity_lines": [ 11.243715, 11.488969, 12.769344, 13.904433 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.75, "volume": 129205912, "typical_volume": 85381977.0, "trend": 15.178563, "fair_value": 11.92205, "relative_strength": -19.229052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.20926, "energy": 57.852509, "activity_lines": [ 11.404262, 11.471025, 12.555168, 13.670353 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }