{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94ad5a85-0603-40fd-8325-fb03ef1bf20e", "symbol": "PASAB", "name": "Promotora Ambiental, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.765, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.545, "architecture_energy": 31.054, "architecture_maturity": 58.525, "architecture_confidence": 88.207, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.9, "rotation_up": 30.04, "upward_expansion": 60.95, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 30.98, "downward_expansion": 24.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.8, 39.854545, 39.739524, 39.520538 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 40.0, "trend_reference": 39.251667, "distance_from_trend": 0.019065, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.238526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.074156, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.738412, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.032258, "excess_performance": 0.086925, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019065, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011484, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.074156, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003405, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007384, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10291, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.032258, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.13, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 9.13, "dry_up": 0.640556, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00625, "annualized_volatility": 0.064881, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.066667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.251667, "fair_value_reference": 37.238526, "structural_low": 38.75, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.011818, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.026316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.00082, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.148148, "worst_return": -0.034965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.026316, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.116242, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.076923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.148055, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.133464, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.083217, "worst_return": 0.026316, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050461, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001316, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001314, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", 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null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 39.900002, "volume": 176, "typical_volume": 68.7, "trend": 38.681, "fair_value": 36.124295, "relative_strength": -4.036283, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.229278, "energy": 97.488842, "activity_lines": [ 39.133334, 38.959091, 38.859048, 38.792108 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 39.900002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 68.7, "trend": 38.742667, "fair_value": 36.287757, "relative_strength": -4.285444, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 94.655364, "energy": 98.128042, "activity_lines": [ 39.440001, 39.147273, 38.963572, 38.870753 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 40.0, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 134.6, "trend": 38.806, "fair_value": 36.444167, "relative_strength": -4.126084, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 95.651303, "energy": 98.477902, "activity_lines": [ 39.703334, 39.332728, 39.071667, 38.951871 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 40.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 134.6, "trend": 38.844, "fair_value": 36.561474, "relative_strength": -0.369176, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.319894, "energy": 96.611961, "activity_lines": [ 39.883334, 39.495455, 39.17381, 39.028904 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 40.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 134.6, "trend": 38.882, "fair_value": 36.643526, "relative_strength": -2.749132, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.815095, "energy": 90.83526, "activity_lines": [ 39.98, 39.635455, 39.27, 39.103484 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 40.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 129.6, "trend": 38.965334, "fair_value": 36.726859, "relative_strength": -2.12819, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.731237, "energy": 90.101599, "activity_lines": [ 39.993333, 39.752728, 39.360238, 39.175613 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 40.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 129.6, "trend": 39.003334, "fair_value": 36.797372, "relative_strength": -1.219114, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.665013, "energy": 71.862594, "activity_lines": [ 40.0, 39.847273, 39.444524, 39.242366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 40.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 129.6, "trend": 39.053334, "fair_value": 36.867885, "relative_strength": -0.788595, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.321155, "energy": 68.537048, "activity_lines": [ 40.0, 39.919091, 39.522857, 39.306667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 129.6, "trend": 39.103334, "fair_value": 36.938398, "relative_strength": 0.334556, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.947561, "energy": 67.97245, "activity_lines": [ 40.0, 39.968182, 39.595238, 39.367742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 124.6, "trend": 39.153334, "fair_value": 37.00891, "relative_strength": 0.425354, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.534807, "energy": 67.312675, "activity_lines": [ 40.0, 39.994546, 39.661667, 39.425592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.0, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 134.6, "trend": 39.165, "fair_value": 37.072436, "relative_strength": -1.420611, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.980702, "energy": 24.228186, "activity_lines": [ 39.666667, 39.816364, 39.626905, 39.415699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.0, "volume": 150, "typical_volume": 142.1, "trend": 39.21, "fair_value": 37.142372, "relative_strength": 0.555665, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.79209, "energy": 32.538658, "activity_lines": [ 39.733333, 39.836364, 39.686191, 39.46957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 136.6, "trend": 39.251667, "fair_value": 37.238526, "relative_strength": 0.738412, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.544507, "energy": 31.053589, "activity_lines": [ 39.8, 39.854545, 39.739524, 39.520538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }