{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94b11ce4-a345-4232-9529-b42b62691c2a", "symbol": "AVBH", "name": "Avidbank Holdings, Inc. Common stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.861, "architecture_energy": 35.665, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 54.282, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.98, "rotation_up": 42.41, "upward_expansion": 71.06, "deceleration": 70.67, "rotation_down": 25.77, "downward_expansion": 9.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.373333, 32.370364, 31.677238, 30.980151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 32.6, "trend_reference": 30.129833, "distance_from_trend": 0.081984, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.149336, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.408248, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.138862, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.068502, "excess_performance": -0.118952, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081984, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071721, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.408248, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03645, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.011389, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029745, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068502, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.800878, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 323574, "relative_activity": 0.600832, "balance": 2.800878, "dry_up": 1.153521, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051157, "annualized_volatility": 0.161234, "from_high_reference": -0.046086, "from_low_reference": 0.420479 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.129833, "fair_value_reference": 23.149336, "structural_low": 26.4, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.014447, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.012106, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.134201, "worst_return": -0.079154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.025394, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.023053, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.183473, "worst_return": -0.137931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.079506, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.008607, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.156743, "worst_return": -0.245283, "sufficient": true }, { 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540710.8, "trend": 29.572833, "fair_value": 22.92299, "relative_strength": 4.829482, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.937546, "energy": 48.830226, "activity_lines": [ 32.391333, 32.076364, 31.127881, 30.474892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.86, "volume": 487774, "typical_volume": 544959.2, "trend": 29.725833, "fair_value": 22.997733, "relative_strength": 5.03389, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.552013, "energy": 38.693444, "activity_lines": [ 32.213333, 32.134, 31.28381, 30.622452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.61, "volume": 789401, "typical_volume": 554465.35, "trend": 29.939833, "fair_value": 23.073567, "relative_strength": 6.528091, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.21427, "energy": 36.089648, "activity_lines": [ 32.292, 32.277636, 31.493238, 30.808527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.6, "volume": 323574, "typical_volume": 538543.45, "trend": 30.129833, "fair_value": 23.149336, "relative_strength": 1.138862, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.861142, "energy": 35.664689, "activity_lines": [ 32.373333, 32.370364, 31.677238, 30.980151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }