{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94b529e0-e3f0-46f5-a480-6a44411c3182", "symbol": "NUSA", "name": "NBI Active U.S. Equity ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.142, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.741, "architecture_energy": 58.53, "architecture_maturity": 57.601, "architecture_confidence": 68.104, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.89, "rotation_up": 54.69, "upward_expansion": 82.67, "deceleration": 68.34, "rotation_down": 27.08, "downward_expansion": 9.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.570666, 52.321818, 51.524476, 50.543089 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 53.77, "trend_reference": 49.622187, "distance_from_trend": 0.083588, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.44748, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.183124, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.489344, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.101407, "excess_performance": -0.019014, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083588, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009336, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.183124, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046224, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044893, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045595, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.101407, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.155378, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17200, "relative_activity": 1.487246, "balance": 3.155378, "dry_up": 1.022482, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022031, "annualized_volatility": 0.162012, "from_high_reference": -0.016642, "from_low_reference": 0.217067 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.622187, "fair_value_reference": 45.44748, "structural_low": 44.18, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.01861, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.004793, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.066347, "worst_return": -0.043678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.040444, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.019997, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.135929, "worst_return": -0.09627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.099995, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.00287, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.126008, "worst_return": -0.054549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 53.09, "volume": 5300, "typical_volume": 13415.0, "trend": 49.370855, "fair_value": 45.031336, "relative_strength": -4.229069, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.160964, "energy": 91.611695, "activity_lines": [ 52.412667, 51.740728, 50.515572, 49.81145 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.790001, "volume": 10100, "typical_volume": 12760.0, "trend": 49.421125, "fair_value": 45.136394, "relative_strength": -6.126337, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.823046, "energy": 83.922838, "activity_lines": [ 52.324, 51.839091, 50.755812, 49.967523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.119999, "volume": 3100, "typical_volume": 11485.0, "trend": 49.434457, "fair_value": 45.231939, "relative_strength": -7.237421, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.643799, "energy": 61.578178, "activity_lines": [ 51.936, 51.784546, 50.911907, 50.077128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.419998, "volume": 16900, "typical_volume": 11605.0, "trend": 49.533149, "fair_value": 45.335349, "relative_strength": -4.154087, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.44684, "energy": 54.367705, "activity_lines": [ 52.059332, 51.947454, 51.169334, 50.269744 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.77, "volume": 17200, "typical_volume": 11565.0, "trend": 49.622187, "fair_value": 45.44748, "relative_strength": -4.489344, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.740953, "energy": 58.530253, "activity_lines": [ 52.570666, 52.321818, 51.524476, 50.543089 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }