{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94b58c74-fb43-4d10-a3f1-ad08d3107b1c", "symbol": "SLUS", "name": "iShares MSCI USA Screened UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.446, "architecture_energy": 62.917, "architecture_maturity": 77.17, "architecture_confidence": 71.794, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.1, "rotation_up": 51.9, "upward_expansion": 81.68, "deceleration": 71.24, "rotation_down": 28.89, "downward_expansion": 10.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.5632, 12.515444, 12.33406, 12.045013 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.848, "trend_reference": 11.710528, "distance_from_trend": 0.097132, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.960019, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.289957, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.982158, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.159148, "excess_performance": 0.094509, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097132, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038469, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.289957, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036272, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039822, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050247, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.159148, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.596467, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 607382, "relative_activity": 0.763446, "balance": 2.596467, "dry_up": 0.764479, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020599, "annualized_volatility": 0.132898, "from_high_reference": -0.009826, "from_low_reference": 0.244625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.710528, "fair_value_reference": 9.960019, "structural_low": 10.458, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.019805, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.011565, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.083913, "worst_return": -0.111682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.034925, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.044595, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.134743, "worst_return": -0.19289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.071592, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.070294, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.21097, "worst_return": -0.088048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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11.449555, "fair_value": 9.76264, "relative_strength": 8.245251, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.666723, "energy": 64.757704, "activity_lines": [ 12.369616, 12.286752, 11.880941, 11.664896 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.526, "volume": 12738, "typical_volume": 1024744.05, "trend": 11.489994, "fair_value": 9.796072, "relative_strength": 4.944648, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.965578, "energy": 67.20577, "activity_lines": [ 12.420762, 12.355155, 11.972951, 11.734344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.632, "volume": 454126, "typical_volume": 997617.9, "trend": 11.540461, "fair_value": 9.830133, "relative_strength": 8.45316, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.210419, "energy": 69.38976, "activity_lines": [ 12.499023, 12.425993, 12.067438, 11.808022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.458, "volume": 638275, "typical_volume": 913619.2, "trend": 11.583594, "fair_value": 9.862296, "relative_strength": 7.622877, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.100386, "energy": 63.719125, "activity_lines": [ 12.503333, 12.44632, 12.137953, 11.867218 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.46, "volume": 674759, "typical_volume": 903039.75, "trend": 11.624994, "fair_value": 9.893683, "relative_strength": 6.185463, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.6986, "energy": 62.994642, "activity_lines": [ 12.494133, 12.457784, 12.201706, 11.92376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.32, "volume": 512400, "typical_volume": 839033.05, "trend": 11.663594, "fair_value": 9.92488, "relative_strength": 2.63856, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.650055, "energy": 54.298876, "activity_lines": [ 12.440267, 12.438695, 12.245907, 11.968599 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.848, "volume": 607382, "typical_volume": 795579.7, "trend": 11.710528, "fair_value": 9.960019, "relative_strength": 3.982158, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.445755, "energy": 62.9173, "activity_lines": [ 12.5632, 12.515444, 12.33406, 12.045013 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }