{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94c5ec44-ab1b-4064-8b18-a1d2acbafdd7", "symbol": "COCH", "name": "Envoy Medical Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 61.932, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -2.73, "architecture_energy": 2.484, "architecture_maturity": 44.102, "architecture_confidence": 60.09, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 74.47, "rotation_up": 29.22, "upward_expansion": 16.86, "deceleration": 56.92, "rotation_down": 35.73, "downward_expansion": 37.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.6742, 0.678273, 0.676298, 0.678423 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.6712, "trend_reference": 0.67518, "distance_from_trend": -0.005895, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.139821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.686329, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.296145, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.423542, "excess_performance": 0.236088, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005895, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032712, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.686329, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09379, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.252961, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.21748, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.423542, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.762626, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 509460, "relative_activity": 0.345107, "balance": 4.762626, "dry_up": 1.100002, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.174074, "annualized_volatility": 0.766051, "from_high_reference": -0.644868, "from_low_reference": 0.851586 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.67518, "fair_value_reference": 2.139821, "structural_low": 0.3625, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.086932, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.153846, "median_excess_return": -0.152501, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.131387, "worst_return": -0.221818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.183411, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.456005, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": -0.154762, "worst_return": -0.529648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.311897, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.414396, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.214953, "worst_return": -0.60244, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.537344, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.800251, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.459807, "worst_return": -0.614881, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.820385, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0144, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025743, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.266667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.228296, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087786, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.383929, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071647, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.183486, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.221818, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.224771, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.267857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.400758, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.135497, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.35, "volume": 23177, "typical_volume": 84903.1, "trend": 10.123837, "fair_value": 9.870415, "relative_strength": -11.609433, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.800011, "energy": 3.473052, "activity_lines": [ 0.687993, 0.67878, 0.679705, 0.678667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.7016, "volume": 3870056, "typical_volume": 1729354.55, "trend": 0.67854, "fair_value": 2.325273, "relative_strength": -24.832432, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.10826, "energy": 21.120444, "activity_lines": [ 0.697613, 0.683945, 0.681046, 0.680088 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.6627, "volume": 1461431, "typical_volume": 1752122.25, "trend": 0.676297, "fair_value": 2.263399, "relative_strength": -25.9428, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.707302, "energy": 14.523877, "activity_lines": [ 0.689353, 0.681018, 0.67879, 0.679066 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.6706, "volume": 654516, "typical_volume": 1675798.1, "trend": 0.67546, "fair_value": 2.201608, "relative_strength": -23.623464, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.952388, "energy": 9.554575, "activity_lines": [ 0.681813, 0.679242, 0.677229, 0.678698 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6712, "volume": 509460, "typical_volume": 1476239.0, "trend": 0.67518, "fair_value": 2.139821, "relative_strength": -25.296145, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.730433, "energy": 2.483649, "activity_lines": [ 0.6742, 0.678273, 0.676298, 0.678423 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }