{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94c699d8-fd43-458c-9f25-e1f088ece30c", "symbol": "4292", "name": "Ataa Educational Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.514, "architecture_energy": 75.992, "architecture_maturity": 28.168, "architecture_confidence": 82.035, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.03, "rotation_up": 10.31, "upward_expansion": 17.61, "deceleration": 37.77, "rotation_down": 75.39, "downward_expansion": 93.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.329333, 47.806182, 49.973936, 51.186883 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 46.900002, "trend_reference": 52.232863, "distance_from_trend": -0.102098, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 63.098474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.256717, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.474941, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.112709, "excess_performance": -0.08088, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102098, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054816, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 42.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.001786, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": 0.011085, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.239024, "worst_return": -0.113129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.031255, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.032569, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.396581, "worst_return": -0.084483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.029945, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.035359, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.241062, "worst_return": -0.120861, 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"relative_strength": -13.304605, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.936296, "energy": 65.303089, "activity_lines": [ 50.236667, 51.004546, 52.451668, 52.954713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.439999, "volume": 188689, "typical_volume": 188776.6, "trend": 53.137604, "fair_value": 63.570407, "relative_strength": -17.336111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.467621, "energy": 83.794436, "activity_lines": [ 48.394667, 49.918546, 51.707375, 52.43295 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.200001, "volume": 649885, "typical_volume": 213380.45, "trend": 52.793742, "fair_value": 63.415627, "relative_strength": -14.380074, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.12565, "energy": 76.407165, "activity_lines": [ 47.606667, 49.266364, 51.177539, 52.049878 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.919998, "volume": 175150, "typical_volume": 216431.05, "trend": 52.402686, "fair_value": 63.24504, "relative_strength": -16.525128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.909079, "energy": 83.260115, "activity_lines": [ 46.461999, 48.296, 50.464315, 51.541895 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.900002, "volume": 249538, "typical_volume": 225516.15, "trend": 52.232863, "fair_value": 63.098474, "relative_strength": -14.474941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.51374, "energy": 75.991658, "activity_lines": [ 46.329333, 47.806182, 49.973936, 51.186883 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }