{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94ca9f0a-23ab-4d3e-b834-1f2d803e38d3", "symbol": "MRG-UN", "name": "Morguard North American Residential Real Estate Investment Trust", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.004, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.122, "architecture_energy": 61.104, "architecture_maturity": 5.635, "architecture_confidence": 88.782, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.98, "rotation_up": 13.49, "upward_expansion": 15.17, "deceleration": 35.35, "rotation_down": 69.61, "downward_expansion": 88.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.49009, 16.684615, 16.763369, 16.895726 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.389999, "trend_reference": 17.170113, "distance_from_trend": -0.045434, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.937339, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.028402, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.800436, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.092605, "excess_performance": -0.213026, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045434, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002524, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.028402, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042699, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158004, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014153, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.092605, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.408907, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84153, "relative_activity": 0.845172, "balance": 0.408907, "dry_up": 1.525518, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029035, "annualized_volatility": 0.173074, "from_high_reference": -0.126424, "from_low_reference": 0.027902 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.170113, "fair_value_reference": 15.937339, "structural_low": 15.945102, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.001234, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.003789, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.092389, "worst_return": -0.084848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013907, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.018271, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.125608, "worst_return": -0.096846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.018935, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.025015, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.17783, "worst_return": -0.085723, "sufficient": 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15.705212, "activity_lines": [ 17.013569, 16.905708, 16.909472, 17.083725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.771738, "volume": 149286, "typical_volume": 102509.7, "trend": 17.252092, "fair_value": 15.892611, "relative_strength": -12.73313, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.894204, "energy": 13.493231, "activity_lines": [ 16.936495, 16.897512, 16.887335, 17.052115 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.652224, "volume": 117539, "typical_volume": 102738.1, "trend": 17.245352, "fair_value": 15.907775, "relative_strength": -13.112469, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.511175, "energy": 20.199589, "activity_lines": [ 16.837073, 16.869346, 16.862195, 17.013414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.25, "volume": 256600, "typical_volume": 103780.55, "trend": 17.218811, "fair_value": 15.922954, "relative_strength": -14.29907, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.404958, "energy": 52.090367, "activity_lines": [ 16.615752, 16.7626, 16.804449, 16.949198 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.389999, "volume": 84153, "typical_volume": 99569.1, "trend": 17.170113, "fair_value": 15.937339, "relative_strength": -15.800436, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.122456, "energy": 61.103875, "activity_lines": [ 16.49009, 16.684615, 16.763369, 16.895726 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }