{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94d09ab6-902a-449b-ba75-5245580dac96", "symbol": "600939", "name": "Chongqing Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.575, "architecture_energy": 31.815, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.99, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.65, "rotation_up": 26.1, "upward_expansion": 16.16, "deceleration": 46.78, "rotation_down": 35.39, "downward_expansion": 63.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.563333, 2.541818, 2.650238, 2.757398 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.61, "trend_reference": 2.901667, "distance_from_trend": -0.100517, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.052377, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.144929, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.030494, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.174051, "excess_performance": -0.130847, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.100517, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105436, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.144929, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133179, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170305, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013463, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174051, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.11594, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47709052, "relative_activity": 0.940719, "balance": 1.11594, "dry_up": 1.00997, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079576, "annualized_volatility": 0.313449, "from_high_reference": -0.45738, "from_low_reference": 0.110638 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.901667, "fair_value_reference": 3.052377, "structural_low": 2.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 4e-06, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004413, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.494024, "worst_return": -0.226586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.011171, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010219, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.268939, "worst_return": -0.20979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.026217, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028995, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.767371, "worst_return": -0.326316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 2.45, "volume": 53767412, "typical_volume": 56649252.35, "trend": 2.944, "fair_value": 3.062797, "relative_strength": -20.990996, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.657414, "energy": 52.328112, "activity_lines": [ 2.495333, 2.541455, 2.685429, 2.800258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.59, "volume": 45272963, "typical_volume": 53905523.8, "trend": 2.920333, "fair_value": 3.057713, "relative_strength": -16.15172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.969444, "energy": 41.725393, "activity_lines": [ 2.534, 2.538, 2.66519, 2.777419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.61, "volume": 47709052, "typical_volume": 50715539.6, "trend": 2.901667, "fair_value": 3.052377, "relative_strength": -17.030494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.575267, "energy": 31.814523, "activity_lines": [ 2.563333, 2.541818, 2.650238, 2.757398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }