{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94df63bb-fa36-4914-8f19-5d5fe97b1640", "symbol": "NHD", "name": "Jubilee Industries Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.461, "architecture_energy": 72.985, "architecture_maturity": 21.848, "architecture_confidence": 88.513, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.9, "rotation_up": 13.84, "upward_expansion": 16.61, "deceleration": 37.62, "rotation_down": 65.18, "downward_expansion": 87.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0194, 0.019673, 0.02049, 0.020708 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.019, "trend_reference": 0.021067, "distance_from_trend": -0.098101, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.032647, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.418025, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.30369, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.136364, "excess_performance": -0.291199, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098101, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052474, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.418025, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006387, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.273037, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127605, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136364, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.479339, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 270500, "relative_activity": 0.443843, "balance": 1.479339, "dry_up": 0.265198, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048583, "annualized_volatility": 0.445393, "from_high_reference": -0.40625, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.021067, "fair_value_reference": 0.032647, "structural_low": 0.019, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.040816, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.021843, "regime_survival": 0.885714, "best_return": 0.294118, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.090909, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.067528, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.176471, "worst_return": -0.309524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.210854, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.210923, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.529412, "worst_return": -0.306122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.278689, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.343523, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.061224, "worst_return": -0.522727, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-11-18", "end": "2023-02-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-02-17", "end": "2023-05-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.269231, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2023-08-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-11", "end": "2023-08-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.122807, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.196721, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.173077, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.414634, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": 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"fair_value": 0.033692, "relative_strength": -22.911426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.805464, "energy": 58.8144, "activity_lines": [ 0.02, 0.020545, 0.021048, 0.0212 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.02, "volume": 275200, "typical_volume": 671375.0, "trend": 0.021467, "fair_value": 0.033417, "relative_strength": -22.966814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.876733, "energy": 41.497046, "activity_lines": [ 0.02, 0.020345, 0.020948, 0.021099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.02, "volume": 95000, "typical_volume": 631850.0, "trend": 0.0214, "fair_value": 0.033154, "relative_strength": -23.412744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.575732, "energy": 49.340352, "activity_lines": [ 0.02, 0.020164, 0.020857, 0.021004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.019, "volume": 5800, "typical_volume": 615790.0, "trend": 0.0212, "fair_value": 0.032891, "relative_strength": -27.039994, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.845274, "energy": 63.238227, "activity_lines": [ 0.019667, 0.019891, 0.020671, 0.020849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.019, "volume": 270500, "typical_volume": 609450.0, "trend": 0.021067, "fair_value": 0.032647, "relative_strength": -27.30369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.460784, "energy": 72.984773, "activity_lines": [ 0.0194, 0.019673, 0.02049, 0.020708 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }