{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94e3d6de-f4a9-4762-a36d-40951292f2a5", "symbol": "YAR", "name": "Yari Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.819, "architecture_energy": 21.933, "architecture_maturity": 99.834, "architecture_confidence": 68.951, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.94, "rotation_up": 24.57, "upward_expansion": 13.6, "deceleration": 46.05, "rotation_down": 27.52, "downward_expansion": 56.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.006033, 0.006036, 0.00595, 0.00641 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.006, "trend_reference": 0.00715, "distance_from_trend": -0.160839, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.007862, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.236853, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.349747, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.333333, "excess_performance": -0.397039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.160839, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158824, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.236853, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083655, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.333497, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050768, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.325111, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7896717, "relative_activity": 3.85744, "balance": 0.325111, "dry_up": 1.53953, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134615, "annualized_volatility": 0.611884, "from_high_reference": -0.6, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.00715, "fair_value_reference": 0.007862, "structural_low": 0.005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.378378, "directional_follow_through": 0.486486, "median_excess_return": -0.019534, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.444444, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.032063, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.24, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.233861, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 2.666667, "worst_return": -0.7, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"red", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.692308, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.468509, "energy": 24.529179, "activity_lines": [ 0.006167, 0.005873, 0.00616, 0.006784 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.006, "volume": 1467319, "typical_volume": 1552844.5, "trend": 0.007517, "fair_value": 0.008125, "relative_strength": -32.213284, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.902608, "energy": 21.578261, "activity_lines": [ 0.006133, 0.005927, 0.006086, 0.006677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.006, "volume": 1091452, "typical_volume": 1595616.3, "trend": 0.007383, "fair_value": 0.008042, "relative_strength": -31.255836, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.748485, "energy": 20.339193, "activity_lines": [ 0.0061, 0.005982, 0.006026, 0.00658 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.006, "volume": 2151039, "typical_volume": 1695129.1, "trend": 0.00725, "fair_value": 0.007952, "relative_strength": -31.877865, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.55327, "energy": 16.273294, "activity_lines": [ 0.006067, 0.006018, 0.005981, 0.00649 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.006, "volume": 7896717, "typical_volume": 2047139.1, "trend": 0.00715, "fair_value": 0.007862, "relative_strength": -33.349747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.819194, "energy": 21.93321, "activity_lines": [ 0.006033, 0.006036, 0.00595, 0.00641 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }