{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94e6cc0f-5205-4c21-87be-af9e18e86dbe", "symbol": "FVI", "name": "Fortuna Mining Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.662, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.451, "architecture_energy": 12.3, "architecture_maturity": 44.073, "architecture_confidence": 83.061, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.71, "rotation_up": 27.28, "upward_expansion": 15.81, "deceleration": 41.25, "rotation_down": 28.68, "downward_expansion": 63.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.734667, 12.511818, 12.784667, 13.184538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.52, "trend_reference": 13.755, "distance_from_trend": 0.055616, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.608077, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.686788, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.994483, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.021816, "excess_performance": -0.098606, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055616, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014096, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.686788, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173433, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009945, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104166, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021816, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.574872, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4397500, "relative_activity": 1.312771, "balance": 0.574872, "dry_up": 1.029551, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084976, "annualized_volatility": 0.700227, "from_high_reference": -0.235387, "from_low_reference": 0.657534 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.755, "fair_value_reference": 8.608077, "structural_low": 11.23, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.001366, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.016936, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.334483, "worst_return": -0.258333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.070136, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.102521, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.460317, "worst_return": -0.279176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.017847, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01718, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.393162, "worst_return": -0.309091, "sufficient": false }, 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"2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.099522, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.203578, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.029664, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127883, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.128205, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.85, "volume": 2116900, "typical_volume": 2424850.0, "trend": 4.675333, "fair_value": 5.861731, "relative_strength": -13.451866, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"relative_strength": -14.871939, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.142977, "energy": 45.519338, "activity_lines": [ 11.990667, 12.233818, 12.762905, 13.262387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.81, "volume": 2669000, "typical_volume": 3680650.0, "trend": 13.747, "fair_value": 8.540897, "relative_strength": -16.541246, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.021093, "energy": 48.860667, "activity_lines": [ 11.902, 12.116545, 12.639238, 13.134667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.52, "volume": 4397500, "typical_volume": 3349785.0, "trend": 13.755, "fair_value": 8.608077, "relative_strength": -0.994483, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.451155, "energy": 12.299967, "activity_lines": [ 12.734667, 12.511818, 12.784667, 13.184538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }