{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94e87407-3247-45c2-8e0e-8b5a99b4d9e5", "symbol": "AP-UN", "name": "Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.863, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.192, "architecture_energy": 13.833, "architecture_maturity": 24.003, "architecture_confidence": 74.46, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.48, "rotation_up": 20.68, "upward_expansion": 29.12, "deceleration": 58.17, "rotation_down": 41.21, "downward_expansion": 48.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.993425, 10.048862, 9.999601, 9.958788 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.8, "trend_reference": 10.278048, "distance_from_trend": -0.046512, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.021187, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.301058, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.040634, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.285554, "excess_performance": -0.405975, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046512, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087116, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.301058, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029787, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.320406, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072593, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.285554, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.409072, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2541100, "relative_activity": 0.936518, "balance": 0.409072, "dry_up": 1.189378, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044731, "annualized_volatility": 0.611031, "from_high_reference": -0.535065, "from_low_reference": 0.142202 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.278048, "fair_value_reference": 14.021187, "structural_low": 8.579915, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.009296, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.006593, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.08907, "worst_return": -0.105583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.027654, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027757, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.254948, "worst_return": -0.215762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.159646, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.16022, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.154557, "worst_return": -0.186726, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.300501, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.329681, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.101674, "worst_return": -0.359295, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038839, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019405, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04412, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.110268, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075606, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030606, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002353, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.005699, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005344, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", 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after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.358481, "energy": 10.992704, "activity_lines": [ 10.141977, 10.074804, 9.948225, 10.058868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.387859, "volume": 2693400, "typical_volume": 2869925.0, "trend": 10.533341, "fair_value": 14.100103, "relative_strength": -28.062431, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.043911, "energy": 14.838064, "activity_lines": [ 10.228144, 10.145978, 10.007862, 10.044431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.82, "volume": 5706100, "typical_volume": 2868125.0, "trend": 10.414123, "fair_value": 14.059997, "relative_strength": -30.705354, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.508037, "energy": 8.609367, "activity_lines": [ 10.109771, 10.097511, 10.006211, 9.998409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.8, "volume": 2541100, "typical_volume": 2713350.0, "trend": 10.278048, "fair_value": 14.021187, "relative_strength": -32.040634, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.191512, "energy": 13.833315, "activity_lines": [ 9.993425, 10.048862, 9.999601, 9.958788 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }