{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94e88e3d-02ae-425e-8d31-69853ca5b0a9", "symbol": "KMER", "name": "KME Group S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.333, "architecture_energy": 31.381, "architecture_maturity": 20.75, "architecture_confidence": 72.177, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.31, "rotation_up": 54.27, "upward_expansion": 80.0, "deceleration": 49.21, "rotation_down": 15.6, "downward_expansion": 4.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.398, 1.393636, 1.393286, 1.390624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.4, "trend_reference": 1.387, "distance_from_trend": 0.009373, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.330096, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.052555, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.060236, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.029412, "excess_performance": -0.14148, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009373, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015373, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.052555, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00084, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120602, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020782, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.029412, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.686974, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2117, "relative_activity": 0.261641, "balance": 0.686974, "dry_up": 0.437541, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022527, "annualized_volatility": 0.117667, "from_high_reference": -0.027778, "from_low_reference": 0.12 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.387, "fair_value_reference": 1.330096, "structural_low": 1.32, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.00722, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.016728, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.215624, "worst_return": -0.05614, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.011647, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.082007, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.264027, "worst_return": -0.081633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.120638, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014596, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.306932, "worst_return": -0.017391, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.26087, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.037311, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.773928, "worst_return": -0.096552, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021898, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003401, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085034, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025926, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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1.385333, 1.389091, 1.389667, 1.385505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.39, "volume": 5764, "typical_volume": 10502.3, "trend": 1.378, "fair_value": 1.322212, "relative_strength": -12.17957, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.881751, "energy": 9.496284, "activity_lines": [ 1.386667, 1.388364, 1.389952, 1.38643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.39, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 10286.85, "trend": 1.38, "fair_value": 1.324135, "relative_strength": -10.600302, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.274795, "energy": 9.566364, "activity_lines": [ 1.387333, 1.388545, 1.390238, 1.387204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.4, "volume": 8529, "typical_volume": 8841.35, "trend": 1.382333, "fair_value": 1.326122, "relative_strength": -9.505327, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.158679, "energy": 16.787729, "activity_lines": [ 1.392, 1.390364, 1.391429, 1.388495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.4, "volume": 2315, "typical_volume": 8551.85, "trend": 1.384667, "fair_value": 1.328109, "relative_strength": -9.802499, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.884665, "energy": 22.687468, "activity_lines": [ 1.396, 1.392182, 1.392429, 1.389634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.4, "volume": 2117, "typical_volume": 8091.25, "trend": 1.387, "fair_value": 1.330096, "relative_strength": -12.060236, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.333122, "energy": 31.381413, "activity_lines": [ 1.398, 1.393636, 1.393286, 1.390624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }