{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "94f42b5d-2a79-461e-8057-1164a007cb50",
    "symbol": "FBT",
    "name": "First Trust NYSE Arca Biotechnology UCITS ETF Class A USD Accumulation",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 62.792,
    "architecture_energy": 63.213,
    "architecture_maturity": 78.743,
    "architecture_confidence": 52.249,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 15.58,
        "rotation_up": 48.28,
        "upward_expansion": 76.17,
        "deceleration": 74.32,
        "rotation_down": 29.12,
        "downward_expansion": 16.5
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        26.348333,
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        24.945024,
        23.998667
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 26.315001,
    "trend_reference": 23.051,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.141599,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 19.223833,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.368874,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 3.57868,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.199681,
    "excess_performance": 0.028789,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.141599,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.060149,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.368874,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.200531,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035787,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.076879,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.199681,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.519235,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3609,
      "relative_activity": 0.508367,
      "balance": 0.519235,
      "dry_up": 0.434838,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.030869,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.185016,
      "from_high_reference": -0.04811,
      "from_low_reference": 0.526569
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 23.051,
      "fair_value_reference": 19.223833,
      "structural_low": 20.24,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 24,
        "median_return": 0.004003,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001875,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.111275,
        "worst_return": -0.100794,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.016241,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.012496,
        "regime_survival": 0.555556,
        "best_return": 0.097747,
        "worst_return": -0.193703,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.048205,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": -0.117165,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.101154,
        "worst_return": -0.080235,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.043109,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
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        "median_excess_return": -0.141802,
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        "best_return": 0.122115,
        "worst_return": -0.035897,
        "sufficient": false
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    ],
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        "end": "2024-04-19",
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        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "volume": 2162,
        "typical_volume": 5225.7,
        "trend": 21.398767,
        "fair_value": 18.542167,
        "relative_strength": -5.167078,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -10.566777,
        "energy": 14.967933,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.297333,
          21.147636,
          21.362762,
          21.492497
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 21.700001,
        "volume": 3531,
        "typical_volume": 5249.65,
        "trend": 21.4789,
        "fair_value": 18.57332,
        "relative_strength": -4.109222,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 8.140817,
        "energy": 12.098817,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.408334,
          21.258182,
          21.36969,
          21.511931
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 21.889999,
        "volume": 2034,
        "typical_volume": 5188.2,
        "trend": 21.5547,
        "fair_value": 18.599308,
        "relative_strength": -2.986079,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 17.745227,
        "energy": 13.403136,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.562,
          21.398091,
          21.397167,
          21.538454
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 22.42,
        "volume": 553,
        "typical_volume": 3723.75,
        "trend": 21.6425,
        "fair_value": 18.630179,
        "relative_strength": -1.486038,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 33.760725,
        "energy": 32.214167,
        "activity_lines": [
          21.864333,
          21.622273,
          21.477738,
          21.59428
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 23.33,
        "volume": 3715,
        "typical_volume": 3752.55,
        "trend": 21.743167,
        "fair_value": 18.668026,
        "relative_strength": 1.298427,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 49.003017,
        "energy": 65.574839,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.426333,
          21.978909,
          21.640786,
          21.70315
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 23.955,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 3634.6,
        "trend": 21.854,
        "fair_value": 18.707609,
        "relative_strength": 4.123128,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 62.488676,
        "energy": 81.009928,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.055667,
          22.395818,
          21.860262,
          21.845849
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 24.055,
        "volume": 84,
        "typical_volume": 3246.55,
        "trend": 21.951167,
        "fair_value": 18.748346,
        "relative_strength": 1.228876,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.58941,
        "energy": 95.042288,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.521,
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          22.082167,
          21.987849
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 24.4,
        "volume": 12,
        "typical_volume": 2976.05,
        "trend": 22.0355,
        "fair_value": 18.79209,
        "relative_strength": -0.071218,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.844071,
        "energy": 94.694675,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.944333,
          23.152636,
          22.331786,
          22.145839
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 26.625,
        "volume": 850,
        "typical_volume": 2803.2,
        "trend": 22.170667,
        "fair_value": 18.853186,
        "relative_strength": 11.973782,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 98.480371,
        "energy": 99.215779,
        "activity_lines": [
          24.942,
          23.889455,
          22.782429,
          22.441935
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 27.309999,
        "volume": 21818,
        "typical_volume": 3714.55,
        "trend": 22.334833,
        "fair_value": 18.919917,
        "relative_strength": 11.071375,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 97.794467,
        "energy": 99.148674,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.887666,
          24.662454,
          23.275976,
          22.773505
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 26.665001,
        "volume": 59802,
        "typical_volume": 6675.2,
        "trend": 22.4965,
        "fair_value": 18.9825,
        "relative_strength": 8.554942,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.582903,
        "energy": 92.753993,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.353,
          25.207364,
          23.681071,
          23.052871
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 26.559999,
        "volume": 4589,
        "typical_volume": 6864.85,
        "trend": 22.641333,
        "fair_value": 19.043346,
        "relative_strength": 9.275744,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.616866,
        "energy": 88.811668,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.602666,
          25.630091,
          24.052167,
          23.315032
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 26.674999,
        "volume": 1918,
        "typical_volume": 6884.0,
        "trend": 22.7825,
        "fair_value": 19.104993,
        "relative_strength": 9.514644,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.200743,
        "energy": 86.059943,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.723666,
          25.985363,
          24.409714,
          23.575269
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 25.959999,
        "volume": 2232,
        "typical_volume": 6972.75,
        "trend": 22.929833,
        "fair_value": 19.163609,
        "relative_strength": 5.539416,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.046239,
        "energy": 65.873672,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.454666,
          26.123636,
          24.673214,
          23.780269
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 26.315001,
        "volume": 3609,
        "typical_volume": 7099.2,
        "trend": 23.051,
        "fair_value": 19.223833,
        "relative_strength": 3.57868,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.791757,
        "energy": 63.212635,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.348333,
          26.262091,
          24.945024,
          23.998667
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}