{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94f4401b-5bae-4d45-a21d-90f89eb115e7", "symbol": "AMUB", "name": "UBS AG London Branch", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.124, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.188, "architecture_energy": 73.363, "architecture_maturity": 8.078, "architecture_confidence": 67.836, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.56, "rotation_up": 74.22, "upward_expansion": 89.55, "deceleration": 44.89, "rotation_down": 8.5, "downward_expansion": 16.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.92326, 22.485775, 22.334316, 22.152752 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.8743, "trend_reference": 21.764945, "distance_from_trend": 0.05097, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.577916, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.301309, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.531769, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.118067, "excess_performance": -0.007558, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05097, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056966, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.301309, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024986, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005318, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017336, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.118067, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.445555, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 96570, "relative_activity": 11.205746, "balance": 0.445555, "dry_up": 2.834101, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027271, "annualized_volatility": 0.159422, "from_high_reference": -0.028535, "from_low_reference": 0.336432 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.764945, "fair_value_reference": 17.577916, "structural_low": 20.58927, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": 0.005981, "positive_rate": 0.577778, "directional_follow_through": 0.577778, "median_excess_return": -0.003474, "regime_survival": 0.711111, "best_return": 0.119106, "worst_return": -0.121079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.022691, "positive_rate": 0.823529, "directional_follow_through": 0.823529, "median_excess_return": 0.023738, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.146978, "worst_return": -0.04122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.076145, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.045703, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.197445, "worst_return": 0.009527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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6.547112, "energy": 21.957124, "activity_lines": [ 21.58348, 21.948295, 21.972537, 21.696096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.9935, "volume": 5793, "typical_volume": 4273.65, "trend": 21.197006, "fair_value": 17.313767, "relative_strength": -0.703861, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.140702, "energy": 18.216142, "activity_lines": [ 21.690493, 21.913431, 21.981189, 21.754368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.6285, "volume": 178, "typical_volume": 4270.85, "trend": 21.335061, "fair_value": 17.378345, "relative_strength": 3.705939, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.505033, "energy": 22.722359, "activity_lines": [ 22.019667, 22.000984, 22.047358, 21.846722 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.0811, "volume": 422, "typical_volume": 4184.6, "trend": 21.486683, "fair_value": 17.444713, "relative_strength": 6.257163, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.304551, "energy": 51.266133, "activity_lines": [ 22.451127, 22.162838, 22.151131, 21.95937 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.2459, "volume": 526, "typical_volume": 4035.5, "trend": 21.63609, "fair_value": 17.513116, "relative_strength": 5.780178, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.117627, "energy": 74.104495, "activity_lines": [ 22.80796, 22.356731, 22.264447, 22.072868 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.8743, "volume": 96570, "typical_volume": 8617.9, "trend": 21.764945, "fair_value": 17.577916, "relative_strength": 0.531769, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.188417, "energy": 73.362756, "activity_lines": [ 22.92326, 22.485775, 22.334316, 22.152752 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }