{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94f5d35e-a870-42cc-9033-19f4fd10a24e", "symbol": "WTIU", "name": "BANK OF MONTREAL MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETNS", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.661, "architecture_energy": 35.873, "architecture_maturity": 48.839, "architecture_confidence": 63.003, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.8, "rotation_up": 64.85, "upward_expansion": 67.85, "deceleration": 61.32, "rotation_down": 9.05, "downward_expansion": 11.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.951253, 16.647265, 16.562007, 16.846717 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.0, "trend_reference": 16.521907, "distance_from_trend": 0.028937, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.927759, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.138818, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.502091, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.180556, "excess_performance": 0.054931, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028937, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135156, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.138818, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091405, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.105021, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05371, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.180556, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.338736, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 305062, "relative_activity": 0.790805, "balance": 1.338736, "dry_up": 0.772119, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156665, "annualized_volatility": 0.85779, "from_high_reference": -0.341341, "from_low_reference": 0.976744 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.521907, "fair_value_reference": 14.927759, "structural_low": 12.66, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.459503, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.456482, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.459503, "worst_return": 0.459503, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.351786, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.227572, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.131274, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.281042, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.313037, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.291226, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.28012, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 20.1747, "volume": 9166, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 19.3923, "volume": 6526, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, 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14.041384, "activity_lines": [ 16.594, 15.804175, 16.39757, 16.582386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.3822, "volume": 375318, "typical_volume": 404147.55, "trend": 16.298907, "fair_value": 14.954635, "relative_strength": 31.388778, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.855107, "energy": 33.641521, "activity_lines": [ 17.868733, 16.452758, 16.593779, 16.801485 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.0, "volume": 305062, "typical_volume": 385761.5, "trend": 16.521907, "fair_value": 14.927759, "relative_strength": 10.502091, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.661167, "energy": 35.873493, "activity_lines": [ 17.951253, 16.647265, 16.562007, 16.846717 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }