{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94f7b0c5-2805-4eb5-95fa-b3cbde80bb72", "symbol": "TCI", "name": "Transcontinental Realty Investors", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.065, "architecture_energy": 17.479, "architecture_maturity": 70.538, "architecture_confidence": 85.198, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.24, "rotation_up": 18.28, "upward_expansion": 20.8, "deceleration": 70.0, "rotation_down": 50.36, "downward_expansion": 32.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.449333, 42.416545, 40.984905, 40.503032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 36.77, "trend_reference": 41.665333, "distance_from_trend": -0.117492, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 36.128462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.017757, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.398691, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.331455, "excess_performance": -0.457079, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.117492, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05868, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.017757, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018839, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.263987, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016622, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.331455, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.127373, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 638896, "relative_activity": 8.621438, "balance": 0.127373, "dry_up": 3.410688, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148355, "annualized_volatility": 0.674227, "from_high_reference": -0.383571, "from_low_reference": 0.168043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.665333, "fair_value_reference": 36.128462, "structural_low": 31.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.114435, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.074698, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.170718, "worst_return": -0.173922, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.063698, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.001004, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.08941, "worst_return": 0.037987, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.147959, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.301758, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.098291, "worst_return": -0.197627, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.127434, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148715, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.152738, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061969, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067616, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", 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40.231714, 40.986989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.61, "volume": 26631, "typical_volume": 31733.3, "trend": 43.240667, "fair_value": 36.037179, "relative_strength": -6.101995, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.306682, "energy": 55.712482, "activity_lines": [ 46.155333, 43.848182, 40.896524, 41.112882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.18, "volume": 58775, "typical_volume": 33700.15, "trend": 42.778, "fair_value": 36.076859, "relative_strength": -14.470119, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.298735, "energy": 28.495624, "activity_lines": [ 44.669333, 43.769455, 41.096857, 40.979935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.79, "volume": 286701, "typical_volume": 46525.25, "trend": 42.174, "fair_value": 36.117115, "relative_strength": -15.948494, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.915558, "energy": 9.075303, "activity_lines": [ 42.927333, 43.502, 41.237667, 40.851677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.77, "volume": 638896, "typical_volume": 74105.5, "trend": 41.665333, "fair_value": 36.128462, "relative_strength": -26.398691, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.064606, "energy": 17.478988, "activity_lines": [ 40.449333, 42.416545, 40.984905, 40.503032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }