{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94f94b31-450a-4a74-825b-2e183072c219", "symbol": "LAMOSA", "name": "Grupo Lamosa, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -84.968, "architecture_energy": 83.477, "architecture_maturity": 10.927, "architecture_confidence": 80.633, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.26, "rotation_up": 11.25, "upward_expansion": 20.29, "deceleration": 34.23, "rotation_down": 73.58, "downward_expansion": 86.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 91.730001, 93.483819, 94.82481, 95.383258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 88.050003, "trend_reference": 96.396557, "distance_from_trend": -0.086586, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 110.186074, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.200897, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.833405, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.116939, "excess_performance": -0.062272, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086586, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021649, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.200897, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068047, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138334, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022874, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116939, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.215589, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 91006, "relative_activity": 2.256413, "balance": 0.215589, "dry_up": 1.987081, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027746, "annualized_volatility": 0.226791, "from_high_reference": -0.202901, "from_low_reference": 0.035882 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 96.396557, "fair_value_reference": 110.186074, "structural_low": 85.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -8.7e-05, "positive_rate": 0.304348, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.01509, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.044054, "worst_return": -0.055556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.029126, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.053073, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.142002, "worst_return": -0.063636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.031858, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.153207, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.119123, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": true 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01645, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009737, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -7.697659, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.054398, "energy": 16.884759, "activity_lines": [ 95.970001, 95.844546, 96.140156, 96.497508 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 96.0, "volume": 5082, "typical_volume": 24805.15, "trend": 97.173732, "fair_value": 110.501874, "relative_strength": -6.678984, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.1202, "energy": 17.54812, "activity_lines": [ 96.118001, 95.848546, 96.126684, 96.411724 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 90.0, "volume": 224485, "typical_volume": 35981.8, "trend": 96.817482, "fair_value": 110.350224, "relative_strength": -12.569124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.090287, "energy": 58.78634, "activity_lines": [ 94.066001, 94.779818, 95.55014, 95.948902 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 88.050003, "volume": 91006, "typical_volume": 40332.15, "trend": 96.396557, "fair_value": 110.186074, "relative_strength": -13.833405, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.967993, "energy": 83.477116, "activity_lines": [ 91.730001, 93.483819, 94.82481, 95.383258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }