{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94f94cdf-6257-4197-a22b-ef7b0698e4f2", "symbol": "VEA", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.546, "architecture_energy": 22.926, "architecture_maturity": 45.463, "architecture_confidence": 93.12, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.96, "rotation_up": 30.93, "upward_expansion": 57.18, "deceleration": 87.63, "rotation_down": 26.2, "downward_expansion": 18.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 1232.166675, 1235.502015, 1226.807416, 1212.35241 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1249.98999, "trend_reference": 1194.389469, "distance_from_trend": 0.046551, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1002.427138, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.246963, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.476404, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.077567, "excess_performance": 0.132234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046551, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03195, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.246963, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004942, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.054764, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080621, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077567, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.516982, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 396769, "relative_activity": 14.243344, "balance": 7.516982, "dry_up": 3.810769, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028735, "annualized_volatility": 0.147369, "from_high_reference": -0.031016, "from_low_reference": 0.162371 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1194.389469, "fair_value_reference": 1002.427138, "structural_low": 1111.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.000344, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.011766, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.044262, "worst_return": -0.077273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.011476, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029572, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.100936, "worst_return": -0.125381, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.006051, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.086985, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.258929, "worst_return": -0.252192, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029563, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.180331, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011373, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030566, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041404, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": 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"activity_lines": [ 1231.686011, 1234.188907, 1220.476149, 1206.324128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1223.030029, "volume": 11093, "typical_volume": 8695.95, "trend": 1191.357247, "fair_value": 999.394341, "relative_strength": 3.220436, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.993959, "energy": 18.345777, "activity_lines": [ 1227.06735, 1232.425584, 1222.548426, 1208.569652 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1249.98999, "volume": 396769, "typical_volume": 27856.45, "trend": 1194.389469, "fair_value": 1002.427138, "relative_strength": 5.476404, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.545654, "energy": 22.925806, "activity_lines": [ 1232.166675, 1235.502015, 1226.807416, 1212.35241 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }