{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94fa0af3-9a3a-40a8-b43f-35fd4812c0b6", "symbol": "3074", "name": "iShares Asia Trust - iShares Core MSCI Taiwan Index ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.416, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.6, "architecture_energy": 25.064, "architecture_maturity": 74.602, "architecture_confidence": 94.547, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.7, "rotation_up": 23.34, "upward_expansion": 57.18, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 30.16, "downward_expansion": 20.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 450.666673, 459.014549, 450.427145, 425.499357 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 458.0, "trend_reference": 391.446668, "distance_from_trend": 0.170019, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 244.200755, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.875506, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 34.276485, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.488947, "excess_performance": 0.522528, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.170019, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.191442, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.875506, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098034, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.342765, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13642, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.488947, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.332081, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54360, "relative_activity": 1.483165, "balance": 1.332081, "dry_up": 0.983115, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06824, "annualized_volatility": 0.357374, "from_high_reference": -0.074747, "from_low_reference": 0.89171 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 391.446668, "fair_value_reference": 244.200755, "structural_low": 299.399994, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.02489, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.012874, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.262607, "worst_return": -0.031008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.110248, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.14298, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.547098, "worst_return": 0.056065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.187481, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.196444, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.754515, "worst_return": 0.046629, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03528, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.02877, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.120316, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062134, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.073543, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", 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"typical_volume": 39980.85, "trend": 380.620001, "fair_value": 240.385886, "relative_strength": 38.121409, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.806575, "energy": 38.795515, "activity_lines": [ 455.61334, 463.789095, 443.761907, 416.560432 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 447.100006, "volume": 31470, "typical_volume": 35971.35, "trend": 385.926668, "fair_value": 242.252697, "relative_strength": 31.44722, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.470023, "energy": 24.906646, "activity_lines": [ 450.693341, 460.469095, 446.886669, 420.849465 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 458.0, "volume": 54360, "typical_volume": 36651.35, "trend": 391.446668, "fair_value": 244.200755, "relative_strength": 34.276485, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.599595, "energy": 25.063894, "activity_lines": [ 450.666673, 459.014549, 450.427145, 425.499357 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }