{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "94fb6402-f26a-4336-ba85-8fe8fb06b7bf",
    "symbol": "PEF",
    "name": "Invesco RAFI Europe Fundamental Value UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 73.198,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 83.864,
    "architecture_energy": 90.138,
    "architecture_maturity": 36.269,
    "architecture_confidence": 67.002,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 4.33,
        "rotation_up": 84.81,
        "upward_expansion": 98.92,
        "deceleration": 39.07,
        "rotation_down": 9.44,
        "downward_expansion": 20.92
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        16.1884,
        16.018522,
        15.827295,
        15.688317
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 16.358,
    "trend_reference": 15.529256,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.053367,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 12.501386,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.308495,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -5.446167,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.059772,
    "excess_performance": -0.111119,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.053367,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.034011,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.308495,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.038185,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.054462,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.001505,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.059772,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.228728,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2349,
      "relative_activity": 0.670731,
      "balance": 3.228728,
      "dry_up": 0.62019,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.014962,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.133204,
      "from_high_reference": -0.00523,
      "from_low_reference": 0.235465
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 15.529256,
      "fair_value_reference": 12.501386,
      "structural_low": 14.416,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 46,
        "median_return": 0.013192,
        "positive_rate": 0.652174,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.652174,
        "median_excess_return": -0.002158,
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        "best_return": 0.068219,
        "worst_return": -0.108615,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
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        "regime_survival": 0.466667,
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        "worst_return": -0.053508,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "worst_return": -0.10175,
        "sufficient": true
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      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.003508,
        "sufficient": false
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "relative_strength": -1.539326,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 3454.25,
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": -3.55964,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 12.339581,
        "relative_strength": -7.064135,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.385978,
        "energy": 58.656842,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 15.936,
        "volume": 2912,
        "typical_volume": 3617.35,
        "trend": 15.382868,
        "fair_value": 12.379172,
        "relative_strength": -4.850115,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.521996,
        "energy": 63.932378,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.842533,
          15.758045,
          15.622904,
          15.532534
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 16.054001,
        "volume": 2015,
        "typical_volume": 3627.05,
        "trend": 15.43236,
        "fair_value": 12.418265,
        "relative_strength": -3.906916,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.629093,
        "energy": 75.667925,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.925867,
          15.821718,
          15.678403,
          15.575833
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 16.299999,
        "volume": 1412,
        "typical_volume": 3577.15,
        "trend": 15.482136,
        "fair_value": 12.459267,
        "relative_strength": -3.059319,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.689543,
        "energy": 82.769251,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.0708,
          15.920335,
          15.753044,
          15.631809
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 16.358,
        "volume": 2349,
        "typical_volume": 3502.15,
        "trend": 15.529256,
        "fair_value": 12.501386,
        "relative_strength": -5.446167,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.864132,
        "energy": 90.138398,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.1884,
          16.018522,
          15.827295,
          15.688317
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}