{ "ticker": { "uuid": "94fb82a2-1b40-4d51-ac10-aa2de5597761", "symbol": "PFS", "name": "PTC India Financial Services Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.426, "architecture_energy": 54.793, "architecture_maturity": 5.179, "architecture_confidence": 76.374, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.44, "rotation_up": 9.38, "upward_expansion": 20.24, "deceleration": 41.6, "rotation_down": 65.32, "downward_expansion": 76.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.94, 29.645818, 30.059333, 29.983893 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 29.02, "trend_reference": 30.221, "distance_from_trend": -0.039741, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.837255, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.233031, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.224796, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.138617, "excess_performance": -0.094908, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039741, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043336, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.233031, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07554, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102248, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021563, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138617, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.578363, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3832656, "relative_activity": 1.476969, "balance": 0.578363, "dry_up": 1.011841, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052563, "annualized_volatility": 0.29498, "from_high_reference": -0.286803, "from_low_reference": 0.216771 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.221, "fair_value_reference": 37.837255, "structural_low": 23.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.00458, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": 0.00958, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.211009, "worst_return": -0.166313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.026738, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.008238, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.507092, "worst_return": -0.297329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.037863, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.033828, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.082578, "worst_return": -0.122153, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 30.66, "volume": 2144692, "typical_volume": 2728627.7, "trend": 30.809667, "fair_value": 37.671085, "relative_strength": -6.111818, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.392178, "energy": 8.085106, "activity_lines": [ 30.863333, 30.809273, 30.388048, 30.409548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.790001, "volume": 1808712, "typical_volume": 2709869.05, "trend": 30.711, "fair_value": 37.730302, "relative_strength": -8.690342, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.91275, "energy": 10.834931, "activity_lines": [ 30.516667, 30.631273, 30.383714, 30.343763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.280001, "volume": 1596070, "typical_volume": 2625093.7, "trend": 30.557667, "fair_value": 37.78346, "relative_strength": -7.557755, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.010623, "energy": 18.764529, "activity_lines": [ 30.048667, 30.384728, 30.335381, 30.251441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.73, "volume": 3265252, "typical_volume": 2561974.7, "trend": 30.339333, "fair_value": 37.810563, "relative_strength": -14.036819, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.17335, "energy": 54.937083, "activity_lines": [ 29.182, 29.869818, 30.136429, 30.069011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.02, "volume": 3832656, "typical_volume": 2594946.8, "trend": 30.221, "fair_value": 37.837255, "relative_strength": -10.224796, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.426163, "energy": 54.793194, "activity_lines": [ 28.94, 29.645818, 30.059333, 29.983893 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }