{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9510f523-f995-4ee3-af1e-9c6a6d83a5fc", "symbol": "KSC", "name": "KPS AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.772, "architecture_energy": 59.361, "architecture_maturity": 68.909, "architecture_confidence": 87.931, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.58, "rotation_up": 18.88, "upward_expansion": 9.01, "deceleration": 49.89, "rotation_down": 67.05, "downward_expansion": 84.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.223067, 0.2374, 0.272138, 0.299131 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.21, "trend_reference": 0.345967, "distance_from_trend": -0.393005, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.837359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.749212, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -55.687728, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.570552, "excess_performance": -0.635192, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.393005, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176858, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.749212, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071184, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.556877, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105311, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.570552, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.086882, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50686, "relative_activity": 1.624317, "balance": 0.086882, "dry_up": 0.940049, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.219231, "annualized_volatility": 0.583983, "from_high_reference": -0.7375, "from_low_reference": 0.102362 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.345967, "fair_value_reference": 0.837359, "structural_low": 0.1905, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 50, "median_return": -0.029936, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.62, "median_excess_return": -0.040729, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.359375, "worst_return": -0.256849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.11804, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.145401, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.237342, "worst_return": -0.41831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.222385, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.241427, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.113924, "worst_return": -0.432394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-05-05", "end": "2023-05-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.153696, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.355556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.186207, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.205742, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127711, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -55.197917, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.53504, "energy": 81.020693, "activity_lines": [ 0.255933, 0.279709, 0.307833, 0.338163 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.217, "volume": 34870, "typical_volume": 32526.4, "trend": 0.380933, "fair_value": 0.868526, "relative_strength": -54.892163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.736246, "energy": 84.156578, "activity_lines": [ 0.239267, 0.265127, 0.297295, 0.327062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.213, "volume": 14466, "typical_volume": 30245.25, "trend": 0.368233, "fair_value": 0.857776, "relative_strength": -55.091137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.837725, "energy": 82.813829, "activity_lines": [ 0.226133, 0.251673, 0.28719, 0.316228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.25, "volume": 17313, "typical_volume": 30332.3, "trend": 0.356767, "fair_value": 0.847679, "relative_strength": -47.165268, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.246631, "energy": 62.066349, "activity_lines": [ 0.2306, 0.247345, 0.281271, 0.3086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.21, "volume": 50686, "typical_volume": 31204.5, "trend": 0.345967, "fair_value": 0.837359, "relative_strength": -55.687728, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.771783, "energy": 59.361377, "activity_lines": [ 0.223067, 0.2374, 0.272138, 0.299131 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }