{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9516cf1a-714a-4bcf-8412-4d48171936d9", "symbol": "PEARLPOLY", "name": "Pearl Polymers Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.047, "architecture_energy": 55.777, "architecture_maturity": 10.5, "architecture_confidence": 80.953, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.27, "rotation_up": 9.28, "upward_expansion": 17.97, "deceleration": 44.27, "rotation_down": 70.98, "downward_expansion": 83.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.201333, 17.589091, 18.187524, 18.182107 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 16.889999, "trend_reference": 18.383667, "distance_from_trend": -0.08125, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.199423, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.421564, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.989862, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.09534, "excess_performance": -0.051631, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08125, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093135, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.421564, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102571, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.229899, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047559, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09534, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.296339, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 60739, "relative_activity": 0.790368, "balance": 0.296339, "dry_up": 0.407995, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081796, "annualized_volatility": 0.496218, "from_high_reference": -0.517704, "from_low_reference": 0.324706 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.383667, "fair_value_reference": 29.199423, "structural_low": 12.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.021412, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.015035, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.394433, "worst_return": -0.15069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.144231, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.141844, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.447837, "worst_return": -0.283359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.15035, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.091836, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.311897, "worst_return": -0.252301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 18.958, "fair_value": 29.320064, "relative_strength": -22.906573, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.323012, "energy": 37.31996, "activity_lines": [ 17.954, 18.219818, 18.489524, 18.495462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.200001, "volume": 17459, "typical_volume": 81119.45, "trend": 18.735, "fair_value": 29.277436, "relative_strength": -21.355042, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.817281, "energy": 50.897409, "activity_lines": [ 17.642667, 17.986909, 18.39519, 18.382043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.290001, "volume": 19164, "typical_volume": 78102.75, "trend": 18.544, "fair_value": 29.239551, "relative_strength": -21.742076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.650127, "energy": 52.152725, "activity_lines": [ 17.438667, 17.812182, 18.309952, 18.288817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.889999, "volume": 60739, "typical_volume": 76849.0, "trend": 18.383667, "fair_value": 29.199423, "relative_strength": -22.989862, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.04741, "energy": 55.776639, "activity_lines": [ 17.201333, 17.589091, 18.187524, 18.182107 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }