{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "95187808-87b8-4025-97b4-93b7224524f2",
    "symbol": "VJPA",
    "name": "Vanguard FTSE Japan UCITS ETF USD Accumulation",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 59.452,
    "architecture_energy": 33.11,
    "architecture_maturity": 57.818,
    "architecture_confidence": 86.525,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 24.86,
        "rotation_up": 38.36,
        "upward_expansion": 65.68,
        "deceleration": 85.4,
        "rotation_down": 26.84,
        "downward_expansion": 15.68
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        41.745334,
        41.801455,
        41.239929,
        40.535656
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 42.810001,
    "trend_reference": 39.6875,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.078677,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 32.425353,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.320263,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 5.45321,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.110794,
    "excess_performance": 0.046154,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.078677,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.056422,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.320263,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035133,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.054532,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.075426,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.110794,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.755123,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 33921,
      "relative_activity": 0.711581,
      "balance": 2.755123,
      "dry_up": 1.290568,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.031121,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.192326,
      "from_high_reference": -0.004881,
      "from_low_reference": 0.299636
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 39.6875,
      "fair_value_reference": 32.425353,
      "structural_low": 35.825001,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.019128,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.009044,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.084422,
        "worst_return": -0.025646,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.014213,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005723,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.149225,
        "worst_return": -0.071829,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.01621,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.036879,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.10749,
        "worst_return": -0.085531,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.015815,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.052841,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.27004,
        "worst_return": -0.127355,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.085375,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-30",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.000483,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.002916,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.03057,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.036417,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.001801,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.074792,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.013738,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.025953,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.066867,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.076821,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.043478,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.059544,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 15200.5,
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        "trend": 36.780833,
        "fair_value": 31.084583,
        "relative_strength": 10.089162,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 52.123431,
        "energy": 37.840582,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "relative_strength": 15.146635,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 60.662144,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 55405.65,
        "trend": 37.387334,
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        "relative_strength": 10.951365,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 68.8026,
        "energy": 66.552809,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 53290.45,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 37.767167,
        "fair_value": 31.539583,
        "relative_strength": 11.783815,
        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 41.02,
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        "typical_volume": 49317.4,
        "trend": 37.9485,
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        "relative_strength": 11.84009,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "relative_strength": 14.629024,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 45944.0,
        "trend": 38.446334,
        "fair_value": 31.834391,
        "relative_strength": 12.922537,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.714514,
        "energy": 77.165023,
        "activity_lines": [
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          40.087643,
          39.453796
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 42.43,
        "volume": 14690,
        "typical_volume": 42074.55,
        "trend": 38.684167,
        "fair_value": 31.937853,
        "relative_strength": 8.972664,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.341933,
        "energy": 81.482275,
        "activity_lines": [
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          39.710807
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 42.465,
        "volume": 150408,
        "typical_volume": 48115.35,
        "trend": 38.926334,
        "fair_value": 32.043173,
        "relative_strength": 11.542706,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.101363,
        "energy": 79.406598,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.298,
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          40.639024,
          39.954732
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 40.529999,
        "volume": 100693,
        "typical_volume": 50885.25,
        "trend": 39.103667,
        "fair_value": 32.134263,
        "relative_strength": 6.962344,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.706587,
        "energy": 47.682195,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.763333,
          41.650182,
          40.713929,
          40.058194
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 41.395,
        "volume": 64007,
        "typical_volume": 52052.1,
        "trend": 39.307667,
        "fair_value": 32.225321,
        "relative_strength": 7.619024,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.431699,
        "energy": 37.325593,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.549666,
          41.648091,
          40.870024,
          40.206022
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 41.105,
        "volume": 47464,
        "typical_volume": 49154.5,
        "trend": 39.498,
        "fair_value": 32.31968,
        "relative_strength": 4.318805,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.681278,
        "energy": 26.002588,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.337,
          41.574545,
          40.982381,
          40.321979
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 42.810001,
        "volume": 33921,
        "typical_volume": 47669.9,
        "trend": 39.6875,
        "fair_value": 32.425353,
        "relative_strength": 5.45321,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.451517,
        "energy": 33.109991,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.745334,
          41.801455,
          41.239929,
          40.535656
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}