{ "ticker": { "uuid": "95192bea-2535-4a93-b3e6-e6c2befb0be2", "symbol": "SXLK", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Technology Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.234, "architecture_energy": 46.135, "architecture_maturity": 69.01, "architecture_confidence": 90.777, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.47, "rotation_up": 40.9, "upward_expansion": 66.64, "deceleration": 94.12, "rotation_down": 29.11, "downward_expansion": 15.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 157.646002, 157.316001, 154.946192, 148.839592 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 163.910004, "trend_reference": 141.277334, "distance_from_trend": 0.1602, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 113.374103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.445745, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.888988, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.314856, "excess_performance": 0.143965, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.1602, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067514, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.445745, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047133, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.03889, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017112, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.314856, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.044244, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38651, "relative_activity": 0.81694, "balance": 2.044244, "dry_up": 0.934442, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042031, "annualized_volatility": 0.247202, "from_high_reference": -0.003587, "from_low_reference": 0.402259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 141.277334, "fair_value_reference": 113.374103, "structural_low": 116.889999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.020439, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.018083, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.101825, "worst_return": -0.042299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.064236, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.044206, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.15061, "worst_return": -0.077964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.129902, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.065004, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.224285, "worst_return": 0.06231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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2.811892, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.117113, "energy": 63.486667, "activity_lines": [ 157.817333, 156.475819, 147.015334, 141.487356 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 156.809998, "volume": 11533, "typical_volume": 50498.75, "trend": 136.779, "fair_value": 110.962885, "relative_strength": 1.318158, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.29574, "energy": 59.582418, "activity_lines": [ 157.202665, 157.085636, 148.693382, 142.830624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 159.610001, "volume": 53873, "typical_volume": 49520.1, "trend": 137.782667, "fair_value": 111.460321, "relative_strength": 3.431371, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.34163, "energy": 57.07983, "activity_lines": [ 157.864666, 157.912909, 150.477001, 144.303592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 153.669998, "volume": 54713, "typical_volume": 51245.2, "trend": 138.592, "fair_value": 111.91391, "relative_strength": 0.967705, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.126578, "energy": 44.831502, "activity_lines": [ 156.513332, 157.281818, 151.530239, 145.328581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 156.770004, "volume": 26235, "typical_volume": 48978.5, "trend": 139.458001, "fair_value": 112.379936, "relative_strength": 3.081973, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.772785, "energy": 43.288837, "activity_lines": [ 156.354667, 157.141091, 152.732668, 146.501356 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 151.970001, "volume": 57242, "typical_volume": 48118.25, "trend": 140.179334, "fair_value": 112.830833, "relative_strength": -0.746625, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.307168, "energy": 33.234407, "activity_lines": [ 154.931334, 156.097819, 153.334334, 147.308582 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 163.910004, "volume": 38651, "typical_volume": 47311.9, "trend": 141.277334, "fair_value": 113.374103, "relative_strength": 3.888988, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.234493, "energy": 46.135135, "activity_lines": [ 157.646002, 157.316001, 154.946192, 148.839592 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }