{ "ticker": { "uuid": "951e5bcc-4ef2-40ef-a2d0-fcc24e2e79eb", "symbol": "TGLS", "name": "Tecnoglass Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 73.839, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.79, "architecture_energy": 11.27, "architecture_maturity": 21.705, "architecture_confidence": 65.626, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.57, "rotation_up": 24.27, "upward_expansion": 20.75, "deceleration": 34.92, "rotation_down": 30.43, "downward_expansion": 52.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.481333, 44.673322, 43.858805, 43.955204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 44.14, "trend_reference": 44.999879, "distance_from_trend": -0.019108, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 56.161365, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.21405, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.568106, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.149604, "excess_performance": -0.275229, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019108, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039751, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.21405, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080788, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.235681, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.182819, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.149604, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.017821, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1865953, "relative_activity": 1.217275, "balance": 1.017821, "dry_up": 0.854797, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093338, "annualized_volatility": 0.394188, "from_high_reference": -0.46564, "from_low_reference": 0.180209 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.999879, "fair_value_reference": 56.161365, "structural_low": 37.400153, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.004428, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001654, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.41381, "worst_return": -0.28914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.009619, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04218, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.486715, "worst_return": -0.329877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.335189, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.278058, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.008244, "worst_return": -0.354087, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.208883, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.215467, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048868, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014164, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.158623, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": 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"down", "direction": 1.930481, "energy": 11.23253, "activity_lines": [ 45.326485, 44.51925, 43.561313, 44.201256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.3, "volume": 1096151, "typical_volume": 1789474.25, "trend": 45.594381, "fair_value": 56.116085, "relative_strength": -20.444396, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.939029, "energy": 12.799568, "activity_lines": [ 45.331137, 44.850838, 43.76518, 44.169908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.44, "volume": 1302495, "typical_volume": 1686641.1, "trend": 45.313536, "fair_value": 56.104474, "relative_strength": -23.321448, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.658461, "energy": 8.734046, "activity_lines": [ 44.750667, 44.720366, 43.773619, 44.030916 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.14, "volume": 1865953, "typical_volume": 1532893.4, "trend": 44.999879, "fair_value": 56.161365, "relative_strength": -23.568106, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.790285, "energy": 11.269815, "activity_lines": [ 44.481333, 44.673322, 43.858805, 43.955204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }