{ "ticker": { "uuid": "95238cf1-cf7d-4158-b424-f99ef71decfd", "symbol": "300988", "name": "TianJin JinRong TianYu Precision Machinery Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.242, "architecture_energy": 58.907, "architecture_maturity": 21.333, "architecture_confidence": 82.733, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.5, "rotation_up": 14.02, "upward_expansion": 10.34, "deceleration": 45.57, "rotation_down": 69.48, "downward_expansion": 86.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.362667, 14.905455, 16.438185, 17.212924 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.95, "trend_reference": 17.939971, "distance_from_trend": -0.166665, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.836667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.007639, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.316787, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.158681, "excess_performance": -0.166081, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166665, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019889, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.007639, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.403473, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163168, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16281, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.158681, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.86006, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22449915, "relative_activity": 0.857706, "balance": 0.86006, "dry_up": 1.245638, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128442, "annualized_volatility": 0.493162, "from_high_reference": -0.324741, "from_low_reference": 0.201768 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.939971, "fair_value_reference": 14.836667, "structural_low": 12.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.061205, "positive_rate": 0.9, "directional_follow_through": 0.1, "median_excess_return": 0.043301, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.439102, "worst_return": -0.035382, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.118118, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.057745, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.304348, "worst_return": 0.06286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.138187, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.107925, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.423584, "worst_return": -0.057452, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"energy": 62.602194, "activity_lines": [ 16.394, 17.453862, 18.298949, 18.440534 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.81, "volume": 25083878, "typical_volume": 27174662.55, "trend": 18.240967, "fair_value": 14.846975, "relative_strength": -22.700249, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.111044, "energy": 77.803104, "activity_lines": [ 15.779334, 16.812891, 17.917305, 18.215067 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.83, "volume": 25799357, "typical_volume": 27334520.0, "trend": 18.132506, "fair_value": 14.840436, "relative_strength": -20.34537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.785553, "energy": 83.409102, "activity_lines": [ 15.020667, 16.074806, 17.466859, 17.930489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.18, "volume": 51269444, "typical_volume": 27845842.95, "trend": 18.061876, "fair_value": 14.835342, "relative_strength": -18.320039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.97755, "energy": 75.984939, "activity_lines": [ 14.556, 15.524444, 17.079013, 17.675488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.92, "volume": 30896477, "typical_volume": 26708122.1, "trend": 17.977864, "fair_value": 14.83031, "relative_strength": -18.257534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.851882, "energy": 75.784392, "activity_lines": [ 14.241333, 15.058546, 16.694072, 17.40827 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.95, "volume": 22449915, "typical_volume": 26174372.65, "trend": 17.939971, "fair_value": 14.836667, "relative_strength": -16.316787, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.241509, "energy": 58.906678, "activity_lines": [ 14.362667, 14.905455, 16.438185, 17.212924 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }