{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9524e4a6-aa87-410e-827a-81d63d0a3d64", "symbol": "JDCO34", "name": "JD.com, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 87.639, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.893, "architecture_energy": 80.178, "architecture_maturity": 13.197, "architecture_confidence": 72.43, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.88, "rotation_up": 78.83, "upward_expansion": 90.03, "deceleration": 44.94, "rotation_down": 10.76, "downward_expansion": 19.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.826, 25.521818, 25.122871, 24.821874 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.92, "trend_reference": 24.49207, "distance_from_trend": 0.139961, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.646973, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047774, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.054651, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.184101, "excess_performance": 0.241149, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.139961, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015816, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047774, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128434, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.030547, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.262699, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.184101, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.191715, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23776, "relative_activity": 1.823711, "balance": 7.191715, "dry_up": 1.651243, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053615, "annualized_volatility": 0.33477, "from_high_reference": -0.11933, "from_low_reference": 0.338979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.49207, "fair_value_reference": 26.646973, "structural_low": 20.851715, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.054745, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.038355, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.115031, "worst_return": -0.209939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.137582, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.165867, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": -0.048268, "worst_return": -0.161374, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.111722, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.179641, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.329242, "worst_return": -0.308341, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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23.861454, 24.282727, 24.235624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.209999, "volume": 4817, "typical_volume": 10906.85, "trend": 24.371016, "fair_value": 26.673168, "relative_strength": -9.462145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.884085, "energy": 12.515966, "activity_lines": [ 23.966, 24.019818, 24.378187, 24.288642 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.65, "volume": 46787, "typical_volume": 12566.0, "trend": 24.352681, "fair_value": 26.65043, "relative_strength": -7.224089, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.57904, "energy": 19.119603, "activity_lines": [ 24.643333, 24.248182, 24.499956, 24.371157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.83, "volume": 10730, "typical_volume": 12671.15, "trend": 24.411204, "fair_value": 26.642664, "relative_strength": -0.950666, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.36222, "energy": 63.268073, "activity_lines": [ 25.917333, 24.896909, 24.815798, 24.5955 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.92, "volume": 23776, "typical_volume": 13037.15, "trend": 24.49207, "fair_value": 26.646973, "relative_strength": 3.054651, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.89335, "energy": 80.177512, "activity_lines": [ 26.826, 25.521818, 25.122871, 24.821874 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }