{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "95266701-0b86-4ba0-ad6b-cca2d7320c6a",
    "symbol": "VIST",
    "name": "Vista Oil Gas ADR",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 70.746,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 22.92,
    "architecture_energy": 12.697,
    "architecture_maturity": 22.088,
    "architecture_confidence": 68.369,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 56.89,
        "rotation_up": 38.75,
        "upward_expansion": 54.88,
        "deceleration": 66.03,
        "rotation_down": 19.54,
        "downward_expansion": 20.88
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        67.53,
        66.752,
        68.263048,
        67.832129
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 65.96,
    "trend_reference": 65.667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.004462,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 47.220962,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.396837,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 5.618585,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.17912,
    "excess_performance": 0.053496,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.004462,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.107593,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.396837,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.103703,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.056186,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.088219,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.17912,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.126568,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3932304,
      "relative_activity": 0.698925,
      "balance": 1.126568,
      "dry_up": 0.831962,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.103269,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.432441,
      "from_high_reference": -0.190074,
      "from_low_reference": 1.085362
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 65.667,
      "fair_value_reference": 47.220962,
      "structural_low": 52.815,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.089677,
        "positive_rate": 0.875,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.875,
        "median_excess_return": 0.073198,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.212654,
        "worst_return": -0.019569,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.264009,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.151432,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.574803,
        "worst_return": 0.010774,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.440871,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.463804,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.897638,
        "worst_return": 0.191073,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 1.262387,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 1.158943,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 1.734252,
        "worst_return": 0.790523,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-11-17",
        "end": "2023-12-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.169237,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-08",
        "end": "2024-06-21",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.403751,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-28",
        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.055189,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-19",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.124689,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.099646,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.213285,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.298296,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.110178,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.110598,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-11-14",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.054668,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.078711,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.068606,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-07-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.073724,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.030303,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "trend": 62.452,
        "fair_value": 45.894359,
        "relative_strength": 2.567392,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 6746456.85,
        "trend": 62.963667,
        "fair_value": 46.149295,
        "relative_strength": 8.349247,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 21.437436,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 64.02,
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        "typical_volume": 6787362.05,
        "trend": 63.551333,
        "fair_value": 46.391859,
        "relative_strength": 8.330359,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 2.095165,
        "energy": 21.667126,
        "activity_lines": [
          63.883333,
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          66.989204
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 69.5,
        "volume": 5804707,
        "typical_volume": 6447632.4,
        "trend": 64.286,
        "fair_value": 46.672564,
        "relative_strength": 17.630387,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 11.730801,
        "energy": 16.803608,
        "activity_lines": [
          65.558,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 70.45,
        "volume": 4144588,
        "typical_volume": 6089036.15,
        "trend": 65.007333,
        "fair_value": 46.963974,
        "relative_strength": 17.271986,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 31.682175,
        "energy": 13.793039,
        "activity_lines": [
          67.486,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 65.96,
        "volume": 3932304,
        "typical_volume": 5626215.0,
        "trend": 65.667,
        "fair_value": 47.220962,
        "relative_strength": 5.618585,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 22.919517,
        "energy": 12.696628,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}