{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "952db489-0c57-49bd-a2a4-8aa8081a3c02",
    "symbol": "CRAK",
    "name": "VANECK ETF TR VANECK OIL REFINERS ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 69.393,
    "architecture_energy": 87.665,
    "architecture_maturity": 17.724,
    "architecture_confidence": 83.779,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 20.69,
        "rotation_up": 81.25,
        "upward_expansion": 97.21,
        "deceleration": 41.83,
        "rotation_down": 8.06,
        "downward_expansion": 21.54
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        54.607333,
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        50.45274,
        49.469586
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 54.78,
    "trend_reference": 47.777873,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.146556,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 35.100789,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.560649,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 13.327159,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.237407,
    "excess_performance": 0.111782,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.146556,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.090083,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.560649,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.068064,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.133272,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.013347,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.237407,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.945092,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1436990,
      "relative_activity": 1.855358,
      "balance": 1.945092,
      "dry_up": 2.368364,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.044294,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.214896,
      "from_high_reference": -0.036412,
      "from_low_reference": 0.682765
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 47.777873,
      "fair_value_reference": 35.100789,
      "structural_low": 43.4103,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 28,
        "median_return": 0.009223,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.01471,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.112792,
        "worst_return": -0.135246,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.037154,
        "positive_rate": 0.727273,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.727273,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001384,
        "regime_survival": 0.454545,
        "best_return": 0.156945,
        "worst_return": -0.063572,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.005734,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": 0.019238,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.334463,
        "worst_return": -0.026265,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.008038,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.02988,
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        "best_return": 0.415281,
        "worst_return": -0.064392,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2023-11-24",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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      },
      {
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        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.048111,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.100536,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.012144,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.178592,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "end": "2025-06-13",
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        "active": false
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        "relative_strength": 13.844215,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.15611,
        "energy": 60.008016,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "relative_strength": 15.144994,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 425566.95,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 440621.3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 464211.7,
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        "fair_value": 33.402863,
        "relative_strength": 12.919278,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 496344.05,
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        "relative_strength": 9.693599,
        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "relative_strength": 6.947421,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 478004.35,
        "trend": 44.155147,
        "fair_value": 33.811181,
        "relative_strength": 9.860436,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "relative_strength": 8.780762,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": 3.039824,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 14.497208,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 493332.2,
        "trend": 45.129522,
        "fair_value": 34.309358,
        "relative_strength": 4.908073,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 539503.05,
        "trend": 45.526354,
        "fair_value": 34.453043,
        "relative_strength": 9.347761,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.258137,
        "energy": 18.828992,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 54.25,
        "volume": 1380951,
        "typical_volume": 599225.6,
        "trend": 46.085873,
        "fair_value": 34.616408,
        "relative_strength": 18.982728,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.573874,
        "energy": 61.487683,
        "activity_lines": [
          50.08,
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          48.652781,
          47.847583
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 55.14,
        "volume": 2154759,
        "typical_volume": 663127.2,
        "trend": 46.677873,
        "fair_value": 34.780845,
        "relative_strength": 20.849401,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.294644,
        "energy": 83.26192,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.273,
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          49.300751,
          48.43172
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 55.24,
        "volume": 2364570,
        "typical_volume": 738739.65,
        "trend": 47.255207,
        "fair_value": 34.94521,
        "relative_strength": 18.964219,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.321091,
        "energy": 88.288819,
        "activity_lines": [
          53.842,
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          49.918627,
          48.984115
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 54.78,
        "volume": 1436990,
        "typical_volume": 774508.4,
        "trend": 47.777873,
        "fair_value": 35.100789,
        "relative_strength": 13.327159,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.392772,
        "energy": 87.665302,
        "activity_lines": [
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          50.45274,
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}