{ "ticker": { "uuid": "953826c7-c5b2-4b15-a01a-f356c5c90147", "symbol": "AW16", "name": "UBS MSCI USA Climate Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.806, "architecture_energy": 53.091, "architecture_maturity": 73.897, "architecture_confidence": 59.41, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.13, "rotation_up": 47.19, "upward_expansion": 74.82, "deceleration": 70.99, "rotation_down": 29.04, "downward_expansion": 12.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.514, 22.450273, 22.233538, 21.703422 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.075001, "trend_reference": 21.078433, "distance_from_trend": 0.094721, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.648512, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.237364, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.652043, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.173703, "excess_performance": 0.109063, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094721, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030423, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.237364, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03203, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02652, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050401, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.173703, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.502279, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51, "relative_activity": 0.022573, "balance": 1.502279, "dry_up": 0.726647, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023019, "annualized_volatility": 0.151724, "from_high_reference": -0.040696, "from_low_reference": 0.234353 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.078433, "fair_value_reference": 18.648512, "structural_low": 18.694, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.018295, "positive_rate": 0.653846, "directional_follow_through": 0.653846, "median_excess_return": -0.002078, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.068036, "worst_return": -0.112052, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.043529, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.027105, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.127083, "worst_return": -0.116812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.070901, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.043101, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.186436, "worst_return": -0.098483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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20.7076, "fair_value": 18.339993, "relative_strength": 5.721102, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.075626, "energy": 61.39787, "activity_lines": [ 22.319666, 22.279091, 21.498257, 21.074751 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 22.469999, "volume": 26, "typical_volume": 2569.05, "trend": 20.761267, "fair_value": 18.392237, "relative_strength": 3.136872, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.228692, "energy": 54.598743, "activity_lines": [ 22.325333, 22.352545, 21.653481, 21.188454 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.764999, "volume": 716, "typical_volume": 2030.75, "trend": 20.840267, "fair_value": 18.446217, "relative_strength": 7.135353, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.393382, "energy": 59.480285, "activity_lines": [ 22.449999, 22.454272, 21.822247, 21.317727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.285, "volume": 1932, "typical_volume": 2088.6, "trend": 20.897767, "fair_value": 18.495531, "relative_strength": 5.60781, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.473145, "energy": 52.240241, "activity_lines": [ 22.419333, 22.436454, 21.930419, 21.410935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.24, "volume": 4456, "typical_volume": 2288.5, "trend": 20.950433, "fair_value": 18.54357, "relative_strength": 4.046953, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.163069, "energy": 49.747019, "activity_lines": [ 22.371666, 22.399, 22.0213, 21.497531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.07, "volume": 128, "typical_volume": 2283.9, "trend": 21.003267, "fair_value": 18.592378, "relative_strength": 1.006548, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.722125, "energy": 40.759909, "activity_lines": [ 22.277666, 22.329272, 22.085086, 21.569761 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.075001, "volume": 51, "typical_volume": 2259.35, "trend": 21.078433, "fair_value": 18.648512, "relative_strength": 2.652043, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.805563, "energy": 53.090676, "activity_lines": [ 22.514, 22.450273, 22.233538, 21.703422 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }