{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9540d2d5-35b4-46aa-a41e-cb10f149114d", "symbol": "139250", "name": "Mirae Asset TIGER Energy & Chemicals ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.745, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.511, "architecture_energy": 26.055, "architecture_maturity": 9.65, "architecture_confidence": 65.91, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.91, "rotation_up": 18.0, "upward_expansion": 16.79, "deceleration": 59.27, "rotation_down": 56.04, "downward_expansion": 44.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 16863.641927, 17263.499609, 18193.492271, 18181.790465 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17070.0, "trend_reference": 17885.954915, "distance_from_trend": -0.04562, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12919.938683, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.321214, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.479665, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.084543, "excess_performance": -0.145286, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04562, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074413, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.321214, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.369104, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114797, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046628, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084543, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.29544, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 133608, "relative_activity": 0.335577, "balance": 0.29544, "dry_up": 0.675978, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115723, "annualized_volatility": 0.420001, "from_high_reference": -0.257826, "from_low_reference": 0.518151 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17885.954915, "fair_value_reference": 12919.938683, "structural_low": 14052.040816, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.002905, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.011188, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.002905, "worst_return": -0.002905, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.120077, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.054579, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.120077, "worst_return": -0.120077, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.13073, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.091446, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.13073, "worst_return": -0.13073, "sufficient": false }, { 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17794.269531, "volume": 213756, "typical_volume": 461364.2, "trend": 17689.391927, "fair_value": 12903.255302, "relative_strength": -14.8664, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.052106, "energy": 28.426104, "activity_lines": [ 17345.467578, 17936.17191, 18574.064174, 18344.622201 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15870.0, "volume": 522535, "typical_volume": 436744.5, "trend": 17774.499967, "fair_value": 12905.928448, "relative_strength": -22.354698, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.417902, "energy": 42.802384, "activity_lines": [ 16843.568359, 17449.108487, 18325.293317, 18227.242076 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17070.0, "volume": 133608, "typical_volume": 398143.65, "trend": 17885.954915, "fair_value": 12919.938683, "relative_strength": -11.479665, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.51109, "energy": 26.054978, "activity_lines": [ 16863.641927, 17263.499609, 18193.492271, 18181.790465 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }